Fenerbahce vs Erzurum BB Predictions

Fenerbahce have struggled this season, there can be no getting away from that fact. Despite being one of Turkey’s biggest clubs, Monday’s hosts find themselves down in17th position, level on points with their opponents. Such a position just won’t do. Fortunately, Fenerbahce have looked useful on their own patch, while they’re up against a side that has struggled on the road, so this the perfect place for new manager Ersun Yanal to start.

It’s no lie that the hosts have struggled this season, but their best football has come at Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium. In front of their own fans, Fenerbahce have won just two out of seven, but several of their efforts have been encouraging. They’ve scored ten goals and are averaging a pleasing 1.65 expected goals for, which tells us that they’ve created enough to merit a few more goals. What’s more, although they drew against 4^th place Kasimpasa in their last home match, they played well enough to suggest that they could run riot against a lowly side such as Erzurum. On that occasion, Fenerbahce scored twice, while they clocked a pleasing 2.52 expected goals for. If they do that against a visiting side that has struggled massively away from home, then there will only be one outcome.

Erzurum have managed to gain a few positive results on their travels this season, but they’re yet to pick up a win, while they’ve looked weak at both ends of the pitch. They’ve kept just two clean sheets on the road, while they’ve given up an average of 1.47 expected goals. Such a number isn’t appalling, but it does tell us that they’re not exactly capable of keeping things tight. What’s more, they’ve failed to find the net in four out of seven away from home, while they’re averaging just 0.73, which suggests that they’re not only poor in terms of end-product but that they lack creativity.

This may seem like match between two struggling sides, but as touched on above, it is a gilt-edged opportunity for the hosts to gain a confidence-boosting win. Fenerbahce have lots more about them in the final third and they’re fancied to put that to good use against a side that appears to be toothless on the road. Interestingly, the hosts have clocked 2.0+ expected goals on three occasions at Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium this season, a repeat of any of those efforts would surely be more than enough for them to get the job done here.

At the prices, the bet that stands out is ‘Fenerbahce -1 Asian Handicap’. The hosts have bettered the visitors in all areas, while what they’ve done on home soil is more taking than what the visitors have done on their travels. With an average expected goal difference of +0.40 at home, up against a visiting side with an average of -0.74 on their travels, the hosts can win this and win it well.