FK Krasnodar vs Rubin Kazan Predictions

It’s been a pleasing campaign for Krasnodar, who currently occupy 3^rd place. Not only are they in the top three, but they’re four points clear of 4^th, while they’ve still got a very real chance of finishing 2^nd, as they’re level on points with Lokomotiv Moscow. A win on Sunday could propel Krasnodar into an automatic Champions League spot.

Krasnodar’s recent efforts in the league have been tough to criticise; they were very good when beating Arsenal Tula by three goals to nil away from home last time out, while they made light work of obliterating Yenisey prior to that, as they scored four and conceded none on route to victory.

Last time out at home, Krasnodar beat CSKA by two goals to nil. On that occasion, they were perhaps fortunate not to concede, but they offered a good amount going forward, creating 1.82 expected goals for. In general, Krasnodar have done well in front of a home crowd this season; they’ve won eight of their 14 games at this venue and have only lost three, scoring 28 goals and conceding just 11. What’s more, they average a pleasing 1.97 expected goals for and have surrendered an average of only 1.02 at the other end.

In contrast, Rubin Kazan have struggled to get going on their travels, especially in an attacking sense. Systematically, whether they’re playing at home or away, Kazan aren’t necessarily set up to score lots of goals, but their efforts on the road have been particularly disappointing. They’ve notched only 11 goals in 14 away games. Such a lack of potency has allowed them to win just one away game all season.

They’ve not exactly been overly generous with the amount that they’ve given away, as they’ve surrendered an average of 1.43 goals and 1.34 expected goals, but since they’re producing such a small amount at the other end of proceedings, points have still been hard to come by for Kazan on their travels. Given that they’ve created little, as an average of 0.99 expected goals for suggests, a trip to face a Krasnodar side that has given little away doesn’t exactly promise much for Kurban Berdyev’s men.

From a betting point of view, this is far from a fixture to get excited about. The hosts are the likely winners, but they represent little value at the current prices. One bet that makes a tiny amount of appeal is ‘Krasnodar to Win & Both Teams to Score’.

On the face of it, Krasnodar, who should have more than enough in terms of attacking power to get the desired result, have done well from a defensive point of view at home, but if we examine their recent efforts more closely, it’s easy to feel that they’ve got a slightly greater chance of conceding than the current prices suggest. Last time out at home, they shipped 1.64 expected goals, while they conceded 2.2 and 1.15 prior to that. Interestingly, Kazan have delivered expected goals for figures of 1.22, 1.29 and 1.8 in their last three on the road, so an away goal at Krasnodar Stadium on Saturday certainly isn’t out of the question.