Fleetwood Town vs Southend Predictions

With Doncaster having improved their form over the last few weeks, it’s going to be difficult for anyone to break into the top six, though Fleetwood are one of a handful of teams that are starting to ensure that they’re ready to pounce should something go wrong. As things stand, a top-six finish looks unlikely, but the Cod Army are going in the right direction after winning two on the bounce, so they won’t feel out of it just yet.

Things weren’t looking too positive for Fleetwood when they went away to Coventry and returned with no points, though Joey Barton’s men weren’t deterred by that result and have since built on what was a reasonable display. They easily bettered Plymouth in their penultimate match, scoring two goals, conceding none and emerging with an expected goal difference of +1.84. That victory gave the Cod Army a platform from which to build, and build they did, as they went away to Accrington last weekend and ground out a hard-fought win.

If results were to be believed, then Fleetwood aren’t too great at home, though they’ve certainly not been easy to beat. Only Luton, Portsmouth and Scunthorpe have won at Highbury Stadium since the start of October, while Saturday’s hosts have given little away in recent times, as they’ve conceded expected-goals against numbers of 0.5, 0.62, 0.76, 0.29 and 0.24 in their last five in front of a home crowd. Such figures are very impressive.

The fact that Fleetwood have been tough to get the better of at home in recent times does not bode well for Southend, who’re without a win in 12 League One matches.

While Saturday’s hosts have stopped teams from creating at Highbury of late, Southend have found it tough to get going offensively. Last time out, they were shut out at home by Shrewsbury, as they posted a pathetic 0.47 expected goals for, while they were even poorer when losing to Peterborough in their last away match. On that occasion, the Shrimpers failed to muster a shot on target, while they clocked just 0.24 expected goals for.

Southend haven’t always been terrible away from home; they have scored in three of their last five travelling matches, though their overall underlying numbers aren’t great. They’re averaging 1.18 expected goals for, while their last five away-day numbers of 0.24, 0.77, 1.03, 1.44 and 0.48 don’t exactly make for great reading.

In the betting, ‘Fleetwood to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’ stands out. Not only have the hosts given very little away at home of late, as they’ve surrendered an average of just 0.48 expected goals, but Southend have offered little going forward on their travels of late. When we also consider that Fleetwood aren’t really the sort of side to dish out a real battering at home and combine their recent average expected goal difference of +0.84 at home with Southend’s away-day figure of -0.99, backing the hosts to edge it makes plenty of sense.