Gillingham vs Barnsley Predictions

When they were beaten by three goals to nil on home soil by a fellow relegation-threatened side a few weeks ago, things looked bleak for Gillingham, though Steve Lovell’s men have managed to steady the ship since that embarrassing defeat. They battled hard to earn a point against Accrington, while they also scrapped their way to a share of the spoils against a decent Coventry side last weekend.

Gillingham’s up and down season has continued over the last few weeks. They looked all at sea when getting beaten by Walsall half way through January, but they’ve since avoided defeat twice. When they drew 0-0 at home with Accrington little over a week ago, it appeared as though whatever work done on the training field leading up to that game had had a positive effect on the Gills’ defence, though any improvements were short lived as they once again looked weak against Coventry last time out.

After signing numerous attacking options in the January window, Lovell’s men offered plenty going forward against Coventry, so much so they that really ought to have scored more than the one that they did, though the Kent Club weren’t that hard done by, as they also gave away plenty more than the one goal conceded suggests.

It’s been the same old story for the Gills all season really; they offer quite a bit going forward and, on their day, can be a real handful for opposition defences, but most of their good offensive work is often undone by weak defending. Even at home, where they’ve scored an average of 1.33 goals and are averaging 1.37, their attacking efforts have often paled into insignificance, as the fact that they’ve surrendered an average of 1.67 goals and 1.42 expected goals suggests.

Unfortunately for the hosts, Barnsley are very good at creating more than they give away on the road. The Tykes not only come into this fixture off the back of a ten-game unbeaten run in the league, but they’re also unbeaten in each of their last four, three of which saw them better their opponents in terms of expected goals.

It’s very tough to go against the visitors; the Tykes simply better Gillingham in all areas, though backing Daniel Stendel’s men to simply win represents little value at the prices. Instead, a small play on ‘Barnsley to Win & Both Teams to Score’ may just be worthwhile. The hosts have developed a decent record of scoring against the top sides at home, notching against Sunderland, Luton, Portsmouth and Peterborough. They lost three of those four.

With the attacking talent added in January, the Gills ought to be capable of ruffling a few feathers offensively, but their dodgy back-line is unlikely to cope with a Barnsley side that simply has far more quality.