Gillingham vs Blackpool Predictions

While it was Gillingham’s turn to sit out thanks to Bury’s issues on Saturday, Blackpool continued to make their mark on the new season, as they made it three wins from three games by beating Oxford at Bloomfield Road. After another win, Simon Grayson’s men will be chomping at the bit to get going on Tuesday evening.

Having not played on Saturday, Steve Evans’ men have had over a week to prepare for this fixture after losing to Burton on home soil. On that occasion, Gillingham once again got on the score-sheet and showed glimpses of promise in the final third, though they looked typically open at the back, as they surrendered 2.33 expected goals.

Fortunately for the hosts, Blackpool have given quite a bit away over the first three weeks of the campaign, despite winning three out of three. First time out, as good as they were going forward, the Seasiders, who surrendered 1.24 expected goals, were perhaps fortunate to keep a clean sheet.

When playing away from home at Roots Hall on match-day two, Grayson’s men once again looked strong in the final third, both in terms of creativity and end-product, as they raced into a three-goal lead, though they allowed their opponents to create too. After conceding 1.32 expected goals and 16 shots, four of which hit the target, Blackpool were deservedly breached by Southend.

The Tangerines made it three wins from three games just a few days ago, though it’s impossible to say that their win was anything other than fortunate. In the final third, Blackpool continued to be clinical, but as they surrendered far more shots than they took and ended the game with an expected goal difference -1.07. Oxford, who scored and created 2.06 expected goals, proved that Blackpool’s back-line can be got at, so Tuesday’s hosts ought to fancy their chances of going forward.

From a betting point of view, ‘Both Teams to Score’ is very hard to avoid. Gillingham haven’t been amazing in terms of creativity, but they have scored in each of their first two league games, while they’re going up against a Blackpool side that has given lots away during the early weeks. When we then add in the fact that the visitors have looked strong in front of goal and the fact that the Gills shipped twice at this venue recently, conceding 2.33 expected goals, then it’s not at all hard to conclude that the early price available is a generous one and thus must be exploited.

Those interested in a punt on the score-line are pointed towards a 2-1 win for the hosts. Blackpool may have maximum points after three games, but their defensive efforts are cause for concern. After they were fortunate to come out on top on Saturday, the visitors look on the short side, so backing the hosts to snatch their first win of the season, despite their own defensive deficiencies, is the way to go.