Gillingham vs Scunthorpe Predictions

Gillingham’s mini revival came to an end last weekend, as they were trounced on home soil by Barnsley. There’s not much shame in losing to one of the best teams in the division, though it’s not just the good teams that Gillingham are struggling against. Steve Lovell’s men have now failed to win any of their last four league matches, two of which they’ve lost, while they currently find themselves in a lowly 21^st position.

The less said about Gillingham’s efforts against Barnsley last weekend the better. From start to finish, the Gills were outclassed in all areas. Fortunately, facing Scunthorpe is a less demanding task, though Lovell’s men will need to sharpen up at the back if they’re to get a more favourable result.

Week after week, the same thing is said about Gillingham; they’re useful going forward at times and can hurt teams, but they’re all too easily undone at the back. Even at home, the Gills have given far too much away, as they’ve shipped an average of 1.81 goals and an average of 1.67 expected goals. Teams have found it easy to create chances against a Gillingham rear-guard that has kept just four clean sheets at Priestfield this season, most of which have been down to sheer luck.

Fortunately for the hosts, they’re up against a Scunthorpe side that gives quite a bit away on the travels. Scunny have undoubtedly improved over the last six weeks or so; they’re now tougher to beat, while they give the impression that they can compete and win games, though they’ve not exactly thrived from a defensive point of view on the road.

Scunthorpe have kept just three clean sheets on their travels this season, while they’ve shipped an average of 1.56 goals and an average of 1.67 expected goals for. What’s more, while they’ve not been at the races defensively, they’ve struggled to get going in the offensive third, as they’ve averaged just 0.81 expected goals for. Interestingly, Gillingham average 1.34 expected goals for at home.

It’s not often been said that the Gills look a good bet this season, even at home, but at the current prices, it’s not overly difficult to fancy the hosts ahead of Saturday’s match. They’re poor at the back and do give too much away, though their overall attacking efforts at home are more impressive than what Scunthorpe have done offensively on the road and it is the extra quality in the final third that could make the difference on Saturday.

Given that they’ve offered more in the final third, coupled with the fact that they’ll have a home crowd behind them, the Gill look a good price to beat a Scunthorpe side that offers little going forward away from home.