Hamburg vs Bochum Predictions

It’s been a steady start to the new campaign for promotion hopefuls Hamburg, who built on their opening game draw by winning 4-0 last time out. In contrast, Bochum are yet to get going, as they’ve taken just a single point from their first two matches.

While they did require a late goal to share the spoils on match-day one, Hamburg played well, as they posted 2.45 expected goals for and conceded 0.99. Such a performance would have left Dieter Hecking’s men feeling confident ahead of their trip to Nurnberg, and such confidence turned into a devastating performance.

Despite going up against a side that is likely to be in the promotion mix, Hamburg dominated at Max-Morlock-Stadion. An expected goal difference of +1.13 does suggest that their four-goal victory was perhaps unfair, though it’s easy to see that Die Rothosen, who created 1.7 expected goals for and conceded just 0.57, deserved to come out on top.

Unlike Hamburg, Bochum remain without a win, though they’re not without a promising effort. First time out, Friday’s visitors didn’t quite get going against Jahn, losing by three goals to one, creating 1.09 expected goals for and conceding 1.81 in the process. However, improvements were there for all to see when Robin Dutt’s men drew 3-3 with Arminia a week ago. They weren’t overly secure at the back, though they gave away less than the score-line would have us believe, as they surrendered 1.14 expected goals. By posting 2.89 at the other end, Bochum were unfortunate not to take all three points.

The betting ahead of this match suggests that Hamburg are likely winners, though while that is true, they represent little value at the current prices. The bet that does stand out is ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’. Hamburg have offered lots going forward in their opening two matches, both in terms of creativity and end-product, so they ought to have a relatively easy time breaking down a reasonably weak Bochum rear-guard. That said, the visitors shouldn’t be discounted from the forward point of view. Bochum have scored four in two at the start of this campaign, while they’ve delivered some useful expected goals for figures.

All in all, the early-season efforts of both, what with the pair averaging a combined 4.5 goals for and 4.04 expected goals for, the chances of a high-scoring game, where both teams find the net, appear to be greater than the current odds suggest. Therefore, a punt on ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’ offers some value.

‘Correct Score’ punters can try 2-2. On their own patch, Hamburg are likely winners, but they look slightly less likely than the prices suggest. In a game that shouldn’t be short of goals, backing the visitors to snatch a point in the form of a 2-2 draw looks a decent option at the prices.