Hannover 96 vs FSV Mainz 05 Predictions

Mainz 05 have had an up and down few weeks as strong home wins over Freiburg (5-0) and Fortuna Dusseldorf (3-1) have been sandwiched between large defeats against form sides like Bayern Munich (6-0) and Werder Bremen (3-1). Yet despite taking just nine points from their last eleven games – those coming from three home wins (W3 L8) – the 05ers are now safe from relegation, thanks to other sides below them, such as this weekend’s opponents, Hannover, failing to make any ground themselves.

Hannover’s own struggles have had it all: poor displays, bad luck, and a recent managerial change. So many things have gone against them and coach Thomas Doll is not being helped by a treatment room full with more first team players than he has to field going into the weekend. To make matters worse, frustrated home fans only add pressure to their unlikely survival ambitions, if they have not given up hope already. Hannover could be all but guaranteed relegation should they lose on Saturday.

It’s no surprise then that the bookies favour Mainz, but we feel the value for this game is in goals – or a lack thereof. Even though just one team has conceded more goals than Hannover 96 in 2019 so far – 31 goals, an average of 2.4 goals per game conceded – in their current form, Mainz don’t look like a side fully capable of exploiting that. Sandro Schwarz’s men have scored just six goals in seven Bundesliga away games since the turn of the year – in fact, they’ve failed to score in 40% of away days as well – and under 2.5 goals were scored in three of Hannover’s last four too.

What’s more interesting is that Hannover have actually been performing more defensively sound over the past few weeks. Doll’s side kept out Hertha last weekend in a 0-0 draw and conceded just one apiece against Gladbach and Schalke in two home games before that. Hannover have, however, been completely lacking in goals and attacking creativity for a while now – they’ve failed to score in 60% of outings at the HDI Arena – and without star man Nicolas Fullkrug – the third top scorer in the Bundesliga last season – we don’t see this changing. Our prediction: 1-0 Mainz.