Hannover 96 vs SC Freiburg Predictions

Having finished in a modest 13^th position last season, Hannover would’ve been hoping to take a step in the right direction and thus move towards the top half this season, though things have gone awry at HDI Arena. In all honesty, Die Roten haven’t been good enough, which is why they find themselves bottom of the pile with just two games to go.

A win against Freiburg on Saturday would give the hosts the slightest hope of going into the relegation play-off, whereby they’d play the side that finishes 3^rd in the second division to determine whether they stay or whether they go, though it would be a huge surprise if Thomas Doll’s men made a late recovery.

Hannover were easily beaten last weekend, though it’s not fair to judge Doll’s side on their efforts against Bayern. Prior to that defeat, Saturday’s hosts beat Mainz at this venue, so perhaps there is still hope for them. However, if we dig a little deeper, it’s easy to feel that Hannover were fortunate to beat Mainz, as they gave away numerous chances, conceding 2.02 expected goals. At the other end, they created 1.34, so their victory probably wasn’t merited.

Overall, Hannover’s lack of defensive stability has cost them. Even at home, Saturday’s hosts have failed to keep teams at bay. They’ve kept just three clean sheets at HDI Arena this season, have surrendered an average 1.63 goals and have given up an average of 2.16 expected goals. Some of their recent attacking efforts haven’t been too bad, though they struggle it terms of end-product, which is why they’ve scored an average of just 0.75 goals at home this season, so they’ll need to tighten up at the back to get a result on Saturday.

Fortunately for the hosts, Freiburg haven’t been overly menacing on their travels. Saturday’s visitors have scored an average of just 0.88 goals away from home during the current campaign, while they’ve failed to score in 31% of their travelling matches.

At the prices, there are two bets that make plenty of appeal. Firstly, ‘Under 3.5 Goals’ looks massively overpriced, as does ‘Under 2.5 Goals’. The Bundesliga has been something of a high-scoring league this term; 62% of the games played in the German top flight have seen at least three goals go in, while four or more goals have been notched in 40% of the matches.

However, since we’re talking about two of the lesser attacking outfits, it’s easy to feel that there’s value to be had by supporting a lack of goals ahead of Saturday’s clash at HDI Arena. The hosts average a measly 0.75 goals for at home, while the visitors haven’t done much better on the road, as they average just 0.88. Moreover, both Hannover, who average just 1.08 expected goals for at home, and Freiburg, who average only 1.03 on their travels, rank poorly in terms of expected goals for.