Heidenheim vs Cologne Predictions

Few people would’ve given Heidenheim a chance against Bayern Munich on Wednesday night, but the second division side did themselves proud, as they gave the Bundesliga leaders a real headache, scoring four times before eventually being edged out late on. After that encouraging effort, Frank Schmidt’s men will fancy themselves to get the better of the 2. Bundesliga leaders.

Wednesday evening may have surprised many people, though it’s not as if Heidenheim are one of 2. Bundesliga’s weakest teams. All season long, Sunday’s hosts have been competitive in the second division, so much so that they’re towards the top fighting for a place in the promotion play-off.

Not only did Heidenheim score goals against Germany’s best during the week, but they’ve notched with regularity at home during the current campaign, scoring an average of 1.77 goals and scoring in each of their last 11 at this venue. They’ve notched at least twice in seven of those 11. Their efforts last time out at home, when beating a decent Union Berlin side, were pleasing, as they scored twice and clocked an encouraging 1.95 expected goals. A repeat of that effort against a Koln side that hasn’t exactly flourished defensively on the road would almost certainly see the hosts do well.

Koln are the best side in the second division, especially from an attacking point of view, but the market is well and truly aware of that, which is why they rarely go into any league match with anything other than an odds-on price-tag. However, that doesn’t mean that the current league leaders can’t be got at.

On the road this season, Koln have conceded a reasonably decent average of just 1.08 goals, though their recent defensive efforts have been poor. They conceded against Ingolstadt in their last away match, while they recently shipped three away at Paderborn and conceded twice away against Union Berlin, who Heidenheim recently made light work of hurting.

Koln’s away-day effort against Union Berlin is interesting. On that occasion, Sunday’s visitors conceded two goals and 1.7 expected goals. They also came out of that game with a negative expected goal difference of -0.24. In contrast, Heidenheim recently bettered Union in terms of expected goals and thrived against them offensively.

At the end of the day, Koln have the quality to beat most teams in this division, but Heidenheim are no mugs. After some encouraging efforts of late, the hosts can certainly hold their own against the current league leaders. More importantly, they don’t appear to have been given enough respect in the early betting. On this basis, ‘Heidenheim Draw No Bet’ stands out as a viable option. ‘Heidenheim to Score Over 1.5 Goals’ also catches the eye. The hosts have thrived going forward of late, so much so that they look to have a slightly better chance of notching twice than the current price suggests.