Heracles vs Willem II Predictions

Things are looking up for Heracles, who thanks to two wins on the spin have put themselves in 6^th position. However, while they’ve got every chances of finishing in a Europa League play-off spot, they cannot afford to take it easy, especially in this match, as Willem, who’re also in good form at present, are one of the teams looking to break into the top seven.

Heracles remain one of the sides more likely to finish in the top seven, especially after they won each of their last two matches. However, if we scratch beneath the surface, then it’s easy to think that they’ve benefitted from a rather large slice of good fortune in recent weeks. Against De Graafschap last time out, the side that currently lies in 6^th struggled to get going offensively, as they clocked just 0.44 expected goals for. On that basis, they were lucky to score twice, while they were also lucky to win having ended the game with an expected goal difference of -0.80. They were also easily out-created by Vitesse prior to that, so much so that their 3-2 victory can also fall into the category of fortunate.

In fact, Heracles have now been outperformed in terms of expected goals in each of their last five Eredivisie games. Unless they start to create more than their opponents on a regular basis, their position in the play-offs is likely to come under serious threat.

Fortunately, Heracles have made light work of creating chances at home this season, as they boast an average of 1.91 expected goals for, while they’ve notched an average of 2.46 goals. Such numbers are positive, though their defensive efforts, especially of late, have been anything but pleasing. Tuesday’s hosts have conceded a relatively worrying average of 1.69 goals, which seemingly flatters them if their average of 1.87 expected goals against is anything to go by.

While Heracles have created plenty at home, Willem haven’t exactly struggled offensively on their travels. Tuesday’s visitors have scored an average of 1.79 goals away from home this season, while they come into this match off the back of several pleasing attacking efforts on the road. Willem have scored at least twice in each of their last three travelling matches, while they’ve scored at least once in each of their last eight away games. Such numbers bode well ahead of a match against the weak defence of Heracles.

Another similarity that Willem seemingly share with Tuesday’s hosts is the inability to keep teams at bay, especially on their travels. Away from home, Willem have surrendered an average of 2.07 goals, and while their average of 1.71 expected goals against does suggest that they should’ve conceded fewer, it also suggests that they’ve conceded lots of scoring chances. Unsurprisingly, Willem have both scored and conceded in each of their last four on the road.

Given the apparent defensive deficiencies of both, coupled with the recent respective home and away performances of the pair, ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’ looks a tad overpriced and is thus worth a go. As there’s been an average of 4.49 goals scored, as well as an average of 3.78 expected goals, in Heracles home games this season, a high-scoring game, where both teams profit offensively, gets the nod.