Holsten Kiel vs Wolfsburg Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

Wolfsburg took a huge step towards another season in the German top flight after beating Bundesliga 2 club Holstein Kiel 3-1 in the home leg of their relegation play-off last Thursday. Wolfsburg did all the running in the early stages, and it was Liverpool-loanee Divock Origi who was the star of the show. The Wolves’ persistence payed off as early as the 13th minute with Origi scoring the opener. Goalkeeper Kenneth Kronholm did well to keep the game from slipping away from Kiel after that. He made a few vital saves before in-form winger Kingsley Schindler drew them level around 20 minutes later.

It was Origi who popped up again though, and he set up Wolfsburg’s thunderous second not long after, putting them ahead going into the tunnel at half-time. As expected, Kiel’s dangerous offense continued to put pressure on the 2008/09 Bundesliga champions, but another Origi assist for a Yunus Malli goal saw some weight lifted from Wolfsburg’s shoulders. A late sitter missed by Kiel’s top scorer Marvin Ducksch brought a sour taste to an otherwise valiant Kiel performance, but will a two-goal deficit be too much for them in the 2nd leg?

Well, with Holstein Kiel having it all to play for, this should be a fairly open affair. Wolfsburg did show the difference in quality between the top and second tier on Thursday though, and it’s tough to say whether Kiel will truly have enough in the tank to cause an upset. Statistically, Wolfsburg should actually perform better in this second leg fixture too, having kept a clean sheet in 35% of their Bundesliga matches on the road. So with the hosts forced to go all out, there has to be some value on Wolfsburg to take another win here, especially with plenty of opportunity to counter attack should the game be drawn late on.

That’s not to say we don’t expect Holstein Kiel to score though. Kiel boast the Bundesliga 2’s most dangerous offense (71 goals total in 34 games), and also head into this having scored a massive 18 goals over their last six competitive outings, including one against Wolfsburg last week. But while human emotion makes you root for the underdog, you have to remember that Kiel were a third-tier side just 12 months back.

As a Bundesliga club, Wolfsburg are the much stronger side on paper, and history is on their side too – the club defending their spot in the top flight has won 15 of the last 20 relegation play-offs. Back-to-back 4-1 and 3-1 wins has shown Wolfsburg’s ability to perform against weaker opposition, while Kiel have recorded two defeats from two against stronger opposition over the last few weeks (last Thursday’s play-off match and against 2nd placed Nurnberg in the league). As such, we just don’t see Kiel pulling off the miracle upset. Our prediction: a 2-1 Wolfsburg win.

Holstein Kiel: Kronholm – Herrmann, Schmidt, Czichos, van den Bergh – Peitz – Schindler, Drexler, Kinsombi, Lewerenz – Ducksch
Coach: Markus Anfang

Wolfsburg: Casteels – Uduokhai, Brooks, Knoche, William – Guilavogui, Arnold – Didavi, Malli, Brekalo – Origi
Coach: Bruno Labbadia