Italy vs Finland Predictions

Italy’s failure to qualify for the World Cup in Russia last summer was a clear indication that it was time for a major overhaul of the national team. Roberto Mancini was brought in as manager, and apart from a few stalwarts in the squad, he has been ruthless when it comes to dropping players.

The likes of Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci remain mainstays in the back line, but this most recent iteration of their squad has them as the only players with more than 40 international caps to their name. In fact, 18 of the squad haven’t even made it to double figures on the international scene, and five of them are uncapped.

This is still very much a work in progress for Mancini though. Since he took over last May, Italy have won just three of their nine matches, drawing four times and losing twice. Admittedly they have faced some tough opposition during that period, but considering their status, they really should have a better record than this.

Nevertheless, they are clear favourites when it comes to Euro 2020 qualifying group J. They have been drawn alongside the likes of Armenia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Greece, Liechtenstein, and Saturday’s opponents Finland.

The visiting Finns don’t have anything close to the talent pool of Italy, and Norwich striker Teemu Pukki is the only player in the squad with more than 10 goals to his name. They have, however, got a solid and organised defensive strategy to draw upon.

Finland have lost just three of their last nine matches, and they have avoided defeat against the likes of Austria, Croatia, and Sweden in this period. They have conceded only eight goals in these nine matches, although their poor attacking record doesn’t help matters for them.

It also leads to a lot of low scoring matches. In fact, 12 of Finland’s last 13 matches have seen fewer than three goals scored, and they’re facing an Italy side struggling to find the net themselves. None of Italy’s last seven games have seen more than two goals, and looking even further back they have only seen three or more goals in two of their last 16 matches.

Additionally, each of the last five meetings between Italy and Finland have seen fewer than three goals, which all culminates in us backing Under 2.5 Goals along with a tight 1-0 win for the hosts.