LASK Linz vs FK Austria Vienna Predictions

LASK Linz can no longer do any better or worse than finish 2^nd, so their season is effectively over, though Sunday’s hosts still have something to play for. Austria Vienna are currently in a Europa League qualification place, but if they finish 3^rd, then they’d bypass the qualifiers and go straight into the groups. For that to happen, they need to beat Linz and hope that AFC Wolfsberger fail to win. Quite a tall order, but far from impossible.

It’s been an excellent season for LASK Linz, who’ve done particularly well at this venue. In front of a home crowd, only champions Salzburg have claimed more points than Sunday’s hosts, who’ve won seven, drawn six and lost just two of their 15 home games. Going forward, they’ve offered plenty, scoring a total of 26 goals, while they’ve not done badly at the back either. Linz have conceded just 14 goals at home this season. Only two teams in the entire division have conceded less.

However, since their fate has been known, Linz have taken their foot off the gas slightly, even at home. They recently beat Wolfsberger at this venue, scoring three goals in the process, though they went three games without a win at home prior to that, two of which they lost. During that time, they conceded two goals against both Salzburg and Sturm Graz, shipping expected goals figures of 1.98 and 1.92, so there’s certainly hope for the visitors, who’ve done well on their travels of late.

Austria Vienna’s overall away record this season makes for disappointing reading, but they’ve improved of late. Last time out on the road, Sunday’s visitors performed well, as they beat Sturm Graz, who recently won at this venue, by three goals to one. They weren’t amazing at the back, but they offered a good amount going forward, much as they did when beating St. Polten, who recently drew at this venue, prior to that. On that occasion, Vienna offered plenty in the final third, as they scored twice and posted a very pleasing 4.03 expected goals for. Interestingly, when they recently hosted St. Polten, LASK Linz created just 1.0 expected goals for.

Given their league position and their overall home record, it would be easy to back  the hosts, though at the prices, the visitors make plenty of appeal.

Let’s face it, LASK Linz now have nothing to play for, which has started to show in recent weeks. If we consider their recent home efforts in conjunction with Austria Vienna’s recent exploits on the road, then it’s not tough to conclude that a positive result for the visitors is slightly more likely than the current odds suggest.