Lazio vs Sevilla Predictions

Lazio didn’t exactly make light work of reaching the knockout rounds of this competition, as they came through in second place, finishing just two points ahead of Greek side Apollon. The only important thing is that they did earn a place in the last-32, while recent form means that they should come into this game feeling reasonably confident.

During the group stages, Lazio weren’t always at their best; they faltered against Frankfurt, while they also struggled away against Apollon. However, their efforts on home soil were pleasing. They lost against Frankfurt in their final UEL home match, but their qualification was already assured by then, so we ought to judge the Italians on their first two efforts at Stadio Olimpico.

First time out in this competition, Lazio dominated Apollon in all areas, while they also got the better of a Marseille side that reached the final of this competition last season. From a defensive point of view, Thursday’s hosts weren’t too sharp, as they conceded in each of their three home matches in Group H, though they scored an average of 1.67 goals and averaged 1.5 expected goals for on home soil, which is pleasing.

As they won four of their six matches during the groups, Sevilla made getting to the knockouts of a competition that they’ve won three times in the last five years look relatively easy. They played attacking football, hurt teams in possession and scored plenty of goals. However, while they didn’t exactly struggle to get through, the Andalusians did often come up short on the road.

In their first away match, Sevilla lost against Krasnodar, who outplayed the Spanish side in terms of shots, shots on target and expected goals for. Pablo Machín’s men did beat Akhisar, but they didn’t exactly do so easily as they shipped two goals and conceded 1.59 expected goals, while they lost against St. Liege in their final Group J match, against giving plenty away, as they surrendered 1.87 expected goals for.

When we look at what Lazio achieved at home in the groups and compare it with the efforts of Sevilla on the road, it’s easy to conclude that both are somewhat suspect at the back. Add in the fact that both have plenty to offer going forward and ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ sticks out plenty at the current prices. With Lazio averaging 1.5 expected goals for at home in this competition and with the visitors averaging 1.67 expected goals for on their travels, backing the goals to flow Stadio Olimpico is a sound option.