Lincoln City vs Colchester Predictions

The season is now over for Lincoln, who achieved their main objective by securing the League Two title a short while ago, though Saturday’s visitors still have plenty to play for. Colchester find themselves three points shy of the play-off spots, though both Exeter and Newport have reasonably tough games, so the U’s will come into this match knowing that a win could propel them into the play-offs.

The champions weren’t at their brilliant best on Tuesday evening, though they certainly didn’t play poorly against Newport. In fact, as they clocked 1.81 expected goals for and conceded 1.21, the Imps were somewhat unfortunate to come off second best.

They weren’t that poor in the week, though it must be said that Danny Cowley’s men have stepped off the gas in recent weeks. Since beating MK Dons a month ago, Lincoln have gone four games without a win, drawing against both Cheltenham and Tranmere and losing to Carlisle and Newport. Such results will give Colchester confidence ahead of their trip to Sincil Bank.

While Lincoln have slowed up somewhat, Colchester have picked up seven points from their last three matches, beating both Grimsby and MK Dons and drawing against Yeovil.

From a results point of view, Colchester haven’t exactly thrived on their travels of late; Saturday’s visitors have won just one of their last six travelling matches, though from a performance point of view, they’ve not done too badly in recent weeks. They could only manage a 1-1 draw against lowly Yeovil recently, but they were much the better side, while they were unlucky to lose away against Bury prior to that, especially as they gave away just 0.7 expected goals. Interestingly, Colchester have bettered their opponents in terms of expected goals in each of their last four on the road.

If they hadn’t already clinched the title, then Lincoln would be much shorter in the Win/Draw/Win market. On that basis, it would be easy to get behind the hosts, though their recent efforts haven’t been too encouraging. Similarly, it wouldn’t be too hard to back the visitors on the premise that it is they who’ll be more focused on winning, though based on their overall efforts on the road, Colchester represent little value at the current prices.

The bet that does stand out is ‘Under 2.5 Goals’. For all Lincoln have been impressive this season, they’ve not been amazingly menacing, even at home. Saturday’s hosts have scored more than once in just one of their last six at Sincil Bank, though they have conceded in just three of those six, shipping more than once at no point, which bodes well for punters getting behind a low-scoring affair.

Moreover, Lincoln have surrendered an average of just 0.77 expected goals at home this season. Add in the fact that the visitors average just 1.07 expected goals for and 1.21 against on the road and we can conclude that the chance of a low-scoring game is slightly more likely than the current prices suggest.