Lokomotiv Moscow vs FC Ufa Predictions

It’s been a pleasing campaign for Lokomotiv, who currently sit 2^nd in the Russian Premier League. What’s more, they come into this game having just won the Russian Cup, so confidence is likely to be high. A home match against a struggling Ufa side presents Yuri Semin’s men with a good opportunity to put another three points on the board.

When they last played in the league, Lokomotiv failed to win, as they drew 2-2 away against Ural, though too much shouldn’t be read into that result. In terms of both productivity and creativity, Lokomotiv were the better side, so much so that they were unfortunate not to come out on top.

When last in action at this venue, Lokomotiv beat Rubin Kazan by four goals to nil, while they registered a 2-1 win over Yenisey prior to that. On both of those occasions, Semin’s side proved themselves to be dangerous in the final third, not just in terms of end-product, but in terms of creativity too, as they posted expected goals for numbers of 2.0 and 1.96.

Offering more than they’ve given away, especially in terms of goals, is something that Lokomotiv have specialised in at home this season. They’ve notched an average of 1.71 goals and have conceded an average of just 0.86. Such numbers bode well ahead of a game against a Ural side that has struggled on the road.

While Sunday’s hosts have done a good job of creating more than they concede at home, Ufa, who’ve still not won on their travels this season, have done the opposite away from home.

In terms of both goals for and expected goals for, Ufa have found it tough to leave their mark, as they average just 0.64 goals for and only 0.75 expected goals for on the road. They’ve scored just two goals in their last four travelling matches, while they’ve scored only nine in 14. At the back, they’ve not given an abundance away, as they’ve shipped just 16 in 14, but because of their problems in the final third, they’ve still struggled to collect points.

Given what we’ve seen from this pair, the hosts are hard to oppose, though the market is all too aware of that. In fact, at the current prices, Lokomotiv simply cannot be backed to win.

The bet that does stand out is ‘Under 2.5 Goals’. For all Lokomotiv have done well at home this season, they haven’t often handed out a battering, while the visitors, for all they seemingly cannot win for love nor money, haven’t given too much away on their travels. Considering that the pair have surrendered a combined average of just two goals in their respective home and away games, a punt on a low-scoring game is justified.