Lugano vs Basel Predictions

Basel sit in an unfamiliar position for them at this stage of the season as although they are 2nd in the league they are a colossal 19 points behind the league leaders Young Boys and after relinquishing their 8 year grip on the league title to Young Boys last year, they look set to go 2 years without winning it.

Lugano on the other hand sit a lowly 8th in the table and in normal circumstances would be looking over their shoulders with worry however they currently sit 7 points clear of the relegation play-off and 8 points clear of the bottom of the table. Whilst they should be safe the 3 time champions need to put in a few more good performances to secure their top flight status for another season.

Lugano have been fairly good at home this season, they have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their 11 home games, ranking them 6th in the home league table. After their opening day loss to Young Boys they went on a run of 3 wins and 2 draws in their next 5 home games however since then they have struggled, losing 3 of their last 5 and drawing the other 2.

Basel rank 2nd in the away form table however for them it’s been a disappointing season on the road, winning just 5 of their 11 away games. They have drawn 4 and lost their other 2. Their main problem away from home this season has been their defence, they have conceded 19 times in 11 away games this season at a rate of 1.73 per game. Their scoring form has been good all round, averaging 1.92 goals per game at home and 2.00 per game away from home.

Lugano’s scoring form hasn’t been too shabby either, they score 1.45 per game at home and 1.42 per game away from home. They too struggle defensively however conceding 1.82 goals per game at home and 1.50 goals per game on the road.

This is a game that screams goals to us, 7 of Lugano’s last 8 home games have seen 3 or more goals scored whilst 7 of Basel’s last 9 away league games have also seen 3 or more goals scored. Add those stats to the fact that the two head to head meetings have ended 2-2 (at Lugano) and 3-2 (at Basel) and the Over 2.5 Goals market looks lucrative here. On the correct score front we can see the away side scoring a couple, they have netted 2+ in 7 of their last 8 away games. Lugano’s poor home form pushes us against backing them for a result but we do think they will score and are going for a 2-1 Basel win here.