Morecambe vs Lincoln City Predictions

It’s been anything but a vintage season for Morecambe, who’re currently hovering not too far above the drop-zone, though their predicament has improved in recent weeks. The Shrimps come into this match having won each of their last two matches and thus they ought to be up on confidence. Can the same be said for the visitors? Who’re now without a win in four.

Morecambe did win last time out, though it’s tough to say that they fully deserved their victory. Against a Port Vale side that created plenty, Jim Bentley’s men hung in there and delivered something of a smash and grab. When points are what’s needed, it doesn’t really matter how they arrive, though if the Shrimps continue to perform as they did last time out when ending the match with an expected goal difference -1.57, then they won’t maintain the winning thread for very long.

Results would tell us that Morecambe have been tough to get the better of at home in recent weeks, and while they may be partially true, they’ve not created the best impression at either end. Defensively, Bentley’s men, who’ve now conceded at least twice in three of their last four at Globe Arena have struggled to keep teams at bay, conceding expected-goals against figures of 1.34, 1.75 and 1.94 in their last three at home, while they’ve not exactly looked great going forward. They have scored goals, but they’ll struggle to continue sticking the ball in the net with regularity unless they improve their creativity.

Surprisingly, Lincoln have also looked slightly one-paced offensively of late. They continue to score on a regular basis, but they’ve not delivered a commanding attacking performance for a while, as their last three expected-goals for numbers of 1.33, 0.32 and 1.39 suggest.

On the road this season, as you’d expect from a side sitting pretty at the top, Lincoln have been anything but easy to beat, but they haven’t blown teams away all that often. The Imps have scored in all but one of their last ten travelling matches, though they’ve only won by more than a single goal in two of those, while their average of 1.39 expected goals for doesn’t exactly suggest that they possess an attack to be overly frightened of.

Lincoln are often expected to be involved in high-scoring games, though it’s easy to see this one being something of a low-scoring affair. In terms of quality, the visitors have more to offer. They’ve scored more goals on the road than Morecambe have at home, while they generally offer a bit more in terms of creativity, even if recent efforts haven’t been great.

That said, Morecambe, who’re conceding an average of just 1.15 expected goals at home this season, can make life tough for opponents at Globe Arena, even if their recent numbers suggest something different. Keeping this in mind, coupled with the fact that Lincoln have looked more likely to edge teams out rather than batter them in recent times, ‘Lincoln to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’ stands out as the best bet.