Norwich vs Derby Predictions & Tips

After making a nightmare start, Derby face a crucial weekend. The Rams were making a push for a playoff berth late last season, but three defeats from three have left them in a troubling position going into this weekend’s clash with Norwich.

The Canaries are hoping to make a promotion push this term, but they still haven’t found their groove. Their results so far haven’t been convincing, but could that allow the visitors to end their losing streak?

Derby Fear 100-year Low

The Rams slow start is a concern, but a defeat this weekend would mark a low that has rarely happened across the last 100-years. Derby are looking to avoid losing their opening four league matches of a season for only the third time, doing so in 1899-1900 and 1965-66.

The long term trend for the Rams is that they don’t usually lose all of their first four games. Meanwhile, more recent history has favoured Derby in this clash. Norwich City have won just one of their last eight league meetings with Derby (D4 L3). Meanwhile, the Canaries haven’t exactly made a red hot start to the season themselves.

Canaries Continue to Struggle

Norwich have failed to score in 13 of their last 17 league matches (W2 D2 L13), netting just five times across those matches. While their poor Premier League run is a factor in that, their performances in the league this season have also been poor. Despite being among the favourites for the title, Norwich have converted just 6% of their chances so far. On top of that, they’ve allowed 12 shots per game on their goal, leading to them only beating a poor Huddersfield side in their opening three games.

Meanwhile, Derby are getting chances – on average over 12 per game – while they are conceding 20% of their shots, a rate which surely won’t continue. Derby have a much stronger side than their results suggest and they have one of the league’s best managers, so we don’t expect this run to continue.

We think the bookies have leaned a little too heavily towards Norwich in their prices here, with the Canaries failing to fully impress us. Having trailed twice to Preston in their last home game and after losing to Bournemouth last weekend, we see the hosts as vulnerable here. We see Derby as the value in this one, so we’re backing the Rams Double Chance. Meanwhile, our correct score prediction is a 1-1 draw.