Notts County vs Northampton Predictions

Notts County, who resumed winning ways last weekend, are now in a position to think about staying up. It’s been anything but a vintage season for County, though after some big wins of late, none of which were more important than their away-day victory over Stevenage last weekend, they now look like a side capable of winning games, so much so that they go into Saturday’s clash with Northampton as favourites.

When we scratch beneath the surface, Notts County’s win last time out wasn’t a clear-cut as the result would have us believe, though that’s not to say that they didn’t play well. From a defensive point of view, Neal Ardley’s men were strong, as they allowed their opponents just a single shot on target and conceded 0.66 expected goals, though they weren’t amazingly created. Then again, they were clinical, which at this late stage of the season, is perhaps the most important thing.

The most impressive thing about Notts County in recent weeks has been how little they’ve given away. When they gave an abundance of chance away against Cheltenham a month ago, County looked doomed, but they’ve since tightened up considerably, conceding just two goals in four matches. Their last four expected-goals against numbers of 0.66, 0.21, 0.55 and 0.3 shows that they’ve allowed their opponents next to nothing. This new-found defensive solidity may just be what saves Saturday’s hosts from the drop.

Northampton have already secured their safety, though they’ve defended like a team that is facing the drop recently, conceding five goals in two games. Going forward, they weren’t bad last time out, in fact, they created marginally more than their opponents, though when push came to shove, they were easy to breach. What’s more, prior to their defeat against Port Vale, they conceded an awful lot against Cheltenham Town, shipping three goals and surrendering 2.38 expected goals.

Considering that Notts County have tightened up at the back of late, Northampton’s recent attacking efforts on the road don’t exactly bode well. Saturday’s visitors have scored just one goal in their last two travelling matches, while their overall efforts in terms of creativity haven’t been great. The Cobblers are currently averaging 1.17 expected goals for away from home, while their last five figures read: 0.38, 0.43, 1.36, 1.17 and 0.76. Hardly inspiring stuff.

With Notts County now looking reasonably sturdy, they’re easy to fancy ahead of a match against a side that has struggled offensively on the road of late. Add in the fact that it is the hosts who’ve really got something left to play for this season and a bet on a home win looks good at the current prices.