Notts County vs Port Vale Predictions

The hosts are struggling, there’s no two ways about it. It did look as though County were on the up a few weeks ago, though they’ve since lost two on the bounce and are now five points from safety.  Given their current predicament, a win against a Port Vale side that is just two places above them in the table is a must on Saturday.

It’s hard to put a positive spin on Notts County’s performance last time out; they were poor going forward, while they gave plenty away at the other end of proceedings. An expected-goals for number of just 0.3 shows that they created little, while an expected-goals against figure of 1.77 tells us that they failed to keep their opponents at bay. Even though they’re up against lesser opposition on Saturday, an improved performance will be required if they’re to get anything.

As they’re currently bottom of the pile, it’s obvious that Notts County have struggled this season, though it’s not overly difficult to feel upbeat about their recent efforts at home. For all the Magpies have won just two of their last seven at home, their performances haven’t been too bad during that time, while they’ve posted some relatively encouraging underlying figures. Since the middle of December, only Newport have gone to Meadow Lane and won by more than a single goal, while County have bettered their opponents in terms of expected goals in 86% of their matches during that time. This tells us that they’re at least getting competitive. The fact that they’ve denied the likes of Lincoln, Bury and Mansfield, all of whom are going for promotion, in recent home games also shows that Saturday’s hosts can be a tough nut to crack on home soil.

Port Vale are also struggling; they’re just three points clear of the drop-zone and are now without a league win in six. However, while they’re finding it tough to get their heads in front, Saturday’s visitors haven’t exactly been getting battered on their travels. Vale have lost just two of their last eight travelling matches, while they’ve kept four clean sheets during that time and have conceded more than once in just one of those eight games. Defending isn’t too much of a problem for Port Vale, who’ve conceded just 0.82 goals per away game this season and who’ve given up a respectable average of 1.23 expected goals, but a lack of both creativity and potency in the final third has held them back.

Vale have scored an average of just 0.65 goals away from home this season, so it’s not hard to see why they’ve found it tough to win games. Their average of 0.92 expected goals for suggests that they should’ve scored a few more than they have, though such a number also shows that they’ve lacked creativity.

In the betting, it’s tough to fancy either side at the current prices. Notts County have been better at home than their league position suggests, but they’ve not exactly thrived offensively, while Port Vale have been harder to beat on the road than their league position would have us believe.

Both are struggling to get it together offensively, so a bet on ‘Both Teams to Score – NO’ makes some appeal at the current prices. Notts County have scored an average 0.6 goals in their last five at home, while Vale have notched an average of 0.4 in their last five on the road. Consider this in conjunction with the fact that the pair average a combined 1.71 goals for in their respective home and away games this season and a bet on at least one team to falter offensively on Saturday makes plenty of sense.