Nurnberg vs Schalke Predictions

Nurnberg’s 1-1 draw in Stuttgart last weekend brought to an end a run of eight consecutive away defeats that began with a 5-2 loss in Schalke last November. Not a lot has changed since then. Der Club have won just one of their last 22 matches (W1 D6 L15) – that being their last home outing against Augsburg – which has, unsurprisingly, left them sat within the relegation zone. Survival has always been the target, but that’s going to be tough to achieve. Even star midfielder Hanno Behrens – their top scorer in their 17/18 promotion-winning season – is yet to be the answer since his return from injury and they now have just six matches to make up an eight-point deficit.

Schalke aren’t doing much better either, even following a managerial change. Interim manager Huub Stevens, who took over from Domenico Tedesco in mid-March, has won just one of his four matches so far (W1 L3), that being a game away to bottom of the table Hannover 96. It means Schalke have won just three of their fifteen matches since the turn of the year (W3 D2 L10), an alarming run for last year’s Bundesliga runners-up, who now look nervously over their shoulders at the relegation zone. Just five points separate them and 16th placed Stuttgart.

It’s a surprise, therefore, that Schalke are favourites here, but we feel the value for this game is in goals – or a lack thereof. Nurnberg’s league matches so far in 2019 have seen a measly 24 goals – an average of 2.2 per game, the lowest number in the Bundesliga – and Schalke aren’t too far behind them either, with their matches seeing a total of 31 goals, an average of 2.8 per game – the fifth-lowest average. Notably, under 2.5 goals has also landed in 71% of Nurnberg’s home and 43% of Schalke’s away matches this season too, so that’s the bet we’re going for here.

What’s more interesting about these averages is that the numbers are inflated by both sides’ poor defensive records rather than their own offensive record. That is to say, Nurnberg have only scored 9 of the 24 goals their matches have seen this year, while Schalke have only scored 9 of the 31 total goals in theirs too. With neither side in particularly convincing attacking form, it’s difficult to see Nurnberg or Schalke truly exploiting the opposition defence. And going off both sides’ respective home and away records, it’s hard to see this one going either way. Our prediction: a 1-1 draw.