Oldham vs Stevenage Predictions

Oldham found themselves losing on home soil against Morecambe when last in action at home, while they were unable to atone for that defeat when losing on the road against Bury last weekend. After two defeats in quick succession, Paul Scholes’ men find themselves eight points shy of the play-off places, so they need to regain the winning thread. However, facing a Stevenage side that is currently above them in the table won’t be easy.

There was plenty to dislike about the way that Oldham went about their business last time out, as they gave far too much away against Bury without offering much of a threat going forward. They won’t face too many League Two teams as good as the Shakers, so they won’t always have such a tough time keeping things tight, though if they’re going to move up and challenge for the play-offs, then they will need to do better than two shots on target and an expected-goals for number of 0.97.

Even on their own patch, it’s been an up and down campaign for Oldham, who’ve struggled to consistently do the right things in front of their own fans. They’ve not often been beaten at Boundary Park, losing just two of their last ten at Saturday’s venue, but they’ve found it tough to win of late, emerging victorious from just two of their last six on home soil.

Oldham have often got competitive at home, though rarely have they performed as though they’re going to hand out a real battering. Their recent expected-goals for numbers of 1.24, 0.62, 1.4 and 0.64 aren’t overly encouraging, while the fact that they’re averaging just 1.02 expected goals for at home is poor, especially since we’re talking about a side that wants to challenge for the top seven. Latics have surrendered an average of just 1.12, but it is their lack of creativity that has prevented them from picking up more points at home, which has thus stopped them from obtaining a more flattering league position.

Stevenage, who’re averaging a measly 0.82 expected goals for away from home, have often struggled offensively on their travels. The visitors did recently score twice away against league Leaders Lincoln, which is a pleasing achievement, though they’ve also failed to score in three of their last five on the road, where they’ve scored an average of just 1.12 goals this season.

Stevenage have also tended to struggle from a defensive point of view on their travels too, as they’ve shipped an average of 1.53 goals and 1.55 expected goals. However, they showed that they can compete against the top sides when drawing with Lincoln last time out. Not too many teams have denied the Imps at Sincil Bank, while plenty of teams have given a lot more than 1.3 expected goals away against the current league leaders. If they can repeat such a performance at Boundary Park on Saturday, then the Boro could easily upset an Oldham side that has offered a lot less than Lincoln have going forward this season.

Moreover, Stevenage recently went away and beat Morecambe, who Oldham recently lost to at home. On the road against the Shrimps, Stevenage mustered 1.75 expected goals for and conceded just 0.76, while Oldham created only 1.24 and conceded 1.26 at home against the same opposition.

On their own patch, Oldham are just about the most likely winners of this fixture, though they look far less likely to win than the current prices suggest. Considering that they’ve rarely looked overly menacing going forward, the hosts appear to be far too short in the betting. After a couple of poor performances on their own patch, Scholes’ men could struggle to overcome a Stevenage side that held the league leaders last time out. Frankly, despite not boasting an overly encouraging away record, Stevenage look to be overpriced ahead of this match and thus backing ‘Stevenage Draw No Bet’ offers punters a slice of value.