Oxford United vs Scunthorpe Predictions

After losing to both Peterborough and Accrington, things weren’t looking too rosy for Oxford, though Karl Robinson’s men bounced back last time out, as they got the better of Blackpool away from home. With that win under their belts, the U’s will be looking to take another step in the right direction.

Oxford can be pleased with their efforts at Bloomfield Road last weekend; it wasn’t a game where the U’s did too much going forward, but they took one of their few chances, while they defended very well and restricted a decent side to very few opportunities, which will undoubtedly have pleased Robinson after their heavy defeat away at Accrington.

In addition to a decent effort last time out, Oxford have performed reasonably well at home of late. They were edged out against Peterborough in their last home match, but they’d gone three games without defeat at this venue prior to that, avoiding defeat against very good sides such as Portsmouth and Barnsley. The fact that they bettered sides of that nature in terms of expected goals shows that the U’s are more than capable of holding their own at Kassam Stadium.

In contrast, Scunthorpe come here having struggled to be at their best on the road of late. Stuart McCall’s men have lost each of their last two away matches, while their recent travelling performances have been somewhat lacklustre, especially from an attacking point of view. Given that they did begin to make a habit of conceding goals for fun during the early part of the campaign, Scunny can’t be blamed for trying to adopt a more rigid style, though if they’re going to start getting results on the road, they need to do more going forward. The Iron’s last five away expected-goals for figures of 0.48, 0.64, 0.14, 0.48 and 0.4 suggest that they’re struggling going forward.

Given the above, it’s not difficult to conclude that this is a decent opportunity for the hosts, though we must remember that they’re not the best side going forward, so it’s easy to feel that the current price available on a home win offers little value.

One bet that does stand out is ‘Under 2.5 Goals’. Oxford aren’t the most creative side, while they’re not the best in terms of end-product either. Add in the fact that Scunthorpe have been struggling massively to build up a head of steam on the road and it’s not particularly hard to fancy a low-scoring encounter. More importantly, with the pair averaging just a combined 2.17 expected goals for in their respective home and away matches, supporting a lack of goals appears to represent a small slice of value at the current odds.