Peterborough vs Sunderland Predictions

Having found their feet in the league, Peterborough have had a clear week to prepare for this game, as they were not involved in the League Cup mid-week. Sunderland did play on Wednesday night, which means less preparation time, though they won’t care about that after beating Premier League Burnley, which will have given the Black Cats, who’ve now won five on the spin in all competitions, a real confidence boost.

Judging by the result, Peterborough battered to MK Dons last week, but if we dig a little deeper, we can see the that the overall game was closer than the score-line suggests. As Peterborough emerged with a rather modest expected goal difference of +0.45, it was simply a case of Posh being clinical, while MK Dons lacked end-product. Take nothing away from Darren Ferguson’s men, who impressed by snapping up several half-chances, though as the season develops, they’ll likely need to widen the gap between the amount they create and give away.

After a rather shaky start, Posh have started to get going offensively in the last few weeks. They’ve scored six goals in two matches, while their expected goals for numbers have improved too. They failed to hit 1.0 in either of their first three, but they come into this match having posted figures of 1.59 and 1.5.

Sunderland have also improved in the final third of late, after they too started the season in slow fashion going forward. After delivering 1.36 expected goals for against Rochdale in their penultimate game, which is their best non-penalty tally, the Black Cats delivered an impressive 2.54 when scoring three goals on route to victory over Wimbledon.

It’s early days still, but if Jack Ross’ men can sustain the sort of attacking levels that they reached in front of their own fans last weekend, then they’re far more likely to challenge for an automatic promotion place.

As far as betting on this game goes, although the attacking play of both over the last few weeks has improved, ‘Both Teams to Score – NO’ catches the eye at the current prices.

Peterborough have started to offer more of a threat going forward, but they’ve benefitted from facing a newly promoted MK Dons side and a Southend side that remains pointless. Delivering the goods against Sunderland will be much tougher.

What the Black Cats have done excellently this term is restrict teams. They may have conceded in every game, but they’re yet to ship more than once, while their underlying numbers suggest that clean sheets are on the way. Sunderland have conceded an average of just 0.7 expected goals for, while they currently rank as League One’s fifth best team in terms of shots conceded. They’ve also surrendered an average of just 3.4 shots on target.

Given the numbers above, backing both teams not to score makes plenty of appeal at the prices, while supporting Sunderland, who’ve started to create plenty without giving much away, to secure a relatively uncomplicated 2-0 win also appeals.