Plymouth Argyle vs Rochdale Predictions

Plymouth have failed to win either of their last two League One matches, though given their early-season form, the Pilgrims certainly won’t be disappointed. They’re now unbeaten in three, while they’ve now lost just one of their last nine. Since Derek Adams’ men looked destined for relegation a few months ago, such form is quite incredible.

They may not have offered too much of an attacking threat at Valley Parade last time out, but they made themselves tough to beat, which is something that the Pilgrims are now doing on a regular basis.

However, for all Derek Adams’ men are now far more competitive and for all their recent results have been pleasing, it’s easy to question a couple of their performances. For example, they did avoid defeat last weekend, but they were somewhat lucky as they recorded just 0.59 expected goals for and conceded 1.61. This tells us that they weren’t exactly tough to create against, while it also suggests that they found it tough to make things happen offensively.

Failing to create a large amount is becoming a regular occurrence for the Pilgrims. Saturday’s hosts have scored just two goals in their last four, while they’ve averaged expected-goals for figures of just 0.59, 1.04, 0.91 and 0.34 during that time. That said, they are averaging 1.69 expected goals for at home this season and have scored at least twice in seven of their last ten at Home Park, so it’s not all bad.

Rochdale did improve going forward last time out, as they created lots of chances and scored three goals at home against AFC Wimbledon on Tuesday night. Unfortunately, Keith Hill’s men managed to give away more than they created, while, somewhat incredibly, they also conceded more goals than they scored, as they lost 3-4 in front of a Spotland crowd. That match was a prime example of where Dale have gone wrong this season. Relegation looms unless they tighten up massively at the back, which doesn’t seem all that likely.

Saturday’s visitors are without a clean sheet since November, while they’ve now shipped at least two goals in three of their last four, in which they’ve conceded expected-goals against figures of 4.12, 2.14, 1.04 and 1.93. Such numbers do not tell us that Rochdale are likely to keep teams at bay any time soon.

The hosts have been struggling to make things happen in the final third of late, though their recent home efforts haven’t been too bad, at least in terms of goals scored, while facing Rochdale provides them with a gilt-edged opportunity to up their threat. The hosts have scored at least twice in three of their last four at home, which bodes well ahead of a match against a Dale side that has conceded at least twice in three of their last four on the road.

In the betting, ‘Plymouth to Score Over 1.5 Goals’ is hard to steer clear of. Sooner or later, Rochdale will surprise everyone and keep a clean sheet, though their recent defensive efforts have been so poor that it’s difficult to feel that backing the hosts, who’ve taken advantage of some poor opposing back-lines at home this season, as they’ve scored multiple goals against the likes of Walsall, Oxford, Bradford and Gillingham, to notch at least twice doesn’t represent a smidgen of value.