Plymouth Argyle vs Scunthorpe Predictions

Thanks to an awful run of results over the last month or so, Plymouth find themselves needing to win on the final day, though even a win may not be enough for the Pilgrims, such is their current predicament. Much of the same can be said for Scunthorpe, who’re currently a point behind the Pilgrims. A draw would see the Iron relegated, while anything less than a win would likely see Plymouth down too.

Its been a really rough month for Plymouth. When they drew away against Blackpool at the end of March, it looked as though the Pilgrims would avoid a scrap for survival, but they’ve since lost five on the bounce. Straight after their defeat against the Seasiders, they were unlucky to lose against Charlton, as they were much the better side, though they can have few complaints about losing each of their last four. Defeats against both Barnsley and Doncaster can be forgiven, though losing against the likes of Gillingham and Accrington is hard to take when fighting to stay in the division.

Fortunately, barring their recent home defeat against Barnsley, Plymouth have looked reasonably useful on their own patch, which bodes well ahead of a game against a weak Scunthorpe side. Prior to losing against the Tykes, the Pilgrims played well against Charlton, while they were unbeaten in eight home games before that, five of which they won.

From a defensive point of view, Plymouth have been reasonably weak, even on their patch, though they’ve offered plenty going forward. What’s more, Saturday’s hosts have a solid home record against the current bottom eight, as they’ve won four and drawn three. They’ve scored in each of those eight, have scored twice in four, though they’ve only kept one clean sheet.

In contrast, Scunthorpe have lost four of their seven travelling matches against teams that currently reside in the bottom eight, while they’ve conceded at least twice in five of those seven.

In addition to having a rather poor away record against the teams around them in the table, Scunny have struggled in general on their travels this season. Going forward, the Iron have often come up short in terms of both creativity and end-product. They average just 0.91 goals for on the road, while they also average just 0.91 expected goals for. Not only have Saturday’s visitors struggled offensively on the road, but they’ve also had a tough time of it defensively. Scunny have conceded an average of 1.73 goals. They’ve shipped an average of 1.6 expected goals too. Defensive issues are why ultimately why they’ve lost six of their last seven travelling matches.

A win may not be enough for Plymouth, but three points could easily save them, and the Pilgrims could hardly ask for a better opportunity than a match against a Scunthorpe side that has conceded more goals than any other League One team this season.

At the current prices, ‘Plymouth to Win & Over 1.5 Goals’ catches the eye. Neither side has thrived defensively this season, though the Pilgrims, who average a very decent 1.71 expected goals for at home, have offered much more going forward at home than Scunny have on the road. This extra offensive quality can make all the difference on Saturday, especially as the visitors have defended appallingly in recent away matches.