Port Vale vs Crewe Predictions

There may be off-field problems at Port Vale, though those issues didn’t prevent John Askey’s men from returning to winning ways last time out. In fact, Vale have done well in general of late, as they’ve won three of their last five and have now lost just one of their last six. As they currently sit eight points above the drop, it looks as though their safety is assured.

Last time out, Vale were poor against Forest Green, so they’ll be looking to improve here. On that occasion, they weren’t exactly terrible defensively, though they didn’t do enough going forward, that’s for sure. Fortunately, on their own patch, Askey’s men have often looked half-decent from an offensive point of view at home. Prior to their defeat against Forest Green, they notched three goals in victory against Yeovil, while they scored twice against Mansfield prior to that. In addition, they average a reasonably respectable 1.48 expected goals for in front of their own fans this season.

At the back, Vale have often come unstuck, though they may not have to worry too much about defending on Saturday, as Crewe have often struggled to get going offensively on the road.

Scorers of just 0.65 goals on average away from home this season, Crewe have been anything but fluent in the final third when playing on the road. They did score twice in their most recent away match, though they were somewhat fortunate to do so. Prior to that, they’d failed to find the net in two straight on the road, while they’ve also failed to score in a rather hefty 55% of their travelling matches this season.

In addition to misfiring in over half of their away games this term, Crewe have recently posted some rather tame expected-goals for figures on the road, delivering 1.02, 1.11 and 0.53 in their last three. Furthermore, they could only muster a poor 0.82 when they failed to score in defeat when this pair met earlier in the season.

With Crewe looking somewhat weak going forward, it’s easy to feel that the hosts are a tad overpriced ahead of this fixture. Not only have the visitors often struggled to get going on their travels, but they failed to create much when losing the reverse fixture, while the hosts have delivered a few good attacking efforts on home soil of late.