Red Bull Salzburg vs SV Mattersburg Predictions

Having lifted the title last time around, Salzburg made a winning start to their title defence, beating Rapid Vienna by two goals to nil away from home. The Austrian giants were beaten in a friendly by Chelsea a few days after, though that result shouldn’t have affected morale ahead of this league match. Mattersburg also won first time out, so they too should be feeling confident.

First time out, Salzburg weren’t exactly flamboyant, but they were solid. Defensively, they restricted Rapid, allowing only two shots on target and 0.94 expected goals. Going the other way, the champions weren’t overly impressive, but they did enough to overpower their hosts, registering four shots on target and 1.39 expected goals for. Such numbers aren’t terribly eye-catching, but they’re pleasing, considering that Salzburg were playing away from home against a side that will almost definitely be in top-three mix come the end of the campaign.

While Salzburg were solid on match-day one, Mattersburg we slightly more convincing, even if a 2-1 home win doesn’t suggest so. Against Hartberg, Sunday’s visitors asserted themselves by offering plenty going forward, as they rattled off 16 shots, six of which hit the target. They also created a very encouraging 2.44 expected goals for. At the other end of proceedings, Mattersburg restricted their opponents to three shots on target and just 0.79 expected goals for. They did have the benefit of facing weak opposition at home, but such an effort will have left Franz Ponweiser’s men feeling confident.

Unfortunately for Mattersburg, they’re now faced with an away match against the best team in the division, which isn’t ideal since they were reasonably weak away from home during the previous campaign. Their visit to Red Bull Arena last season did end in a reasonably respectable narrow defeat (2-1), though it was only respectable on the surface. On that occasion, Mattersburg were outclassed in all areas, as they registered just one shot on target, conceded 10, created only 0.51 expected goals for and conceded 2.44.

From a betting point of view, this isn’t the most appealing fixture, though ‘Salzburg to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’ looks viable at the prices.

Mattersburg did well first time out, though they’re now up against a top side, who they struggled massively against at this venue last term. However, although the hosts have quite a considerable edge in terms of quality, we shouldn’t assume that they’ll run away with proceedings. After all, less than four goals were scored in five of Salzburg’s seven home wins against sides that finished inside the top-six last term, while they’ve scored more than two goals in none of their four home games against Mattersburg since 2017, all of which have contained less than four match goals.