River Plate vs Gremio Predictions

Wednesday’s Copa Libertadores semi-final, first leg action sees Argentines River Plate going blow for blow with Brazilians Gremio. The hosts will be looking to establish an advantage to take with them to the return leg.

As disappointed as River will be to have lost their incredible 32 match unbeaten run after making changes for a domestic trip to Colon over the weekend, there’s no doubting that this tie with Gremio has been at the forefront of Millonario minds for a number of weeks now and an expectant Monumental crowd will hope to see yet another special continental night.

With what would be a fourth Libertadores title the target, River have been simply ruthless on home soil in the knockout matches they’ve played to reach this point, hammering compatriots Racing and Independiente 3-1 and 3-0 respectively. That has confidence high coming into the match and those that take to the pitch will be looking to return to the type of form that saw them win 4 matches in a row, scoring an average of 3.25 goals a game in the process, prior to the weekend defeat.

Meanwhile, after winning the Libertadores last season, Gremio are desperate to defend their crown but look like facing a tall order in the tie, given the way River have been playing in 2018. To make matters worse, Gremio have been dealt a severe blow, with star player Everton missing through injury; something made all the more worse by the fact that fellow attacking man Luan is also a major injury doubt for the trip.

10 points adrift of leaders Palmeiras domestically with just 8 matches left to play, Gremio only have Libertadores football left to focus on, but they don’t arrive in the best of form, having not won any of the last 3 games. Just 3 wins in 13 on the road, whilst losing 6 times also has confidence fairly low ahead of the trip and the odds do not look stacked in the visitors favour.

Ultimately, the side that advances to the final from this tie will likely be the one that uses its home advantage the best, and River certainly look well placed to take command of the tie on Wednesday.

Far from strong on the road and depleted in attack, it’s very difficult to envisage Gremio avoiding defeat and for that reason, we’re more than happy to back a home win at a reasonable price. River’s attack is functioning very well at the moment, evidenced by the fact they’ve plunged home an average of 3.33 goals a game over their last 3 home fixtures, and we think they’ll notch a couple in a 2-0 win in this one.