Rochdale vs Bristol Rovers Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews
Rochdale vs Bristol Rovers predictions for Tuesday’s League One fixture at Spotland Stadium. The hosts will be hoping to avoid what would be a third defeat in quick succession. Continue reading below for all our free tips and predictions.
Reason For Rochdale vs Bristol Rovers Betting Tips
Having lost by three goals to one on home soil at the weekend, despite leading initially, Rochdale will be looking to bounce back when they welcome Bristol Rovers to Spotland Stadium on Tuesday evening.
Rochdale’s season stayed on the same track last time out, as they once again paid the price for giving too much away at the back. Usually, Dale at least offer a significant threat going forward, but they were slack in that respect on Saturday and thus deserved to come off second best against a very strong Portsmouth side.
Going forward, Keith Hill’s men are rarely uncompetitive, especially at home, but their defensive frailties continue to be a real hinderance. As things stand, Tuesday’s hosts are currently the sixth worst team in the division in terms of expected goals against, as they’re shipping an average of 1.78. In addition, Dale have conceded more shots on target than all but three teams in the division.
After a poor patch in terms of results, Bristol Rovers have clicked into gear in recent times. They’ve lost just one of their last five in the league, while they finally started to capitalise on their chance creation by notching three against Coventry a fortnight ago. However, Darrell Clarke’s men went back to frustrating their fans when they drew 0-0 at Bradford last weekend.
Despite failing to score for the second time in three league matches last time out, Rovers remain a useful side in the final third, and they should certainly be aided by Rochdale’s dodgy back-line on Tuesday night.
Unlike the hosts, the visitors have done a reasonable job of preventing their opponents from creating too much. According to the expected goals against table, Rovers rank in a lofty third position, while the expected goal difference table has them in 5th, which suggests that, in terms of what they create and concede, Darrell Clarke’s men really are no mugs.
In fact, if we compare the difference between what Rovers have done offensively and defensively to their hosts, then it’s easy to fancy the visitors. Clarke’s men are currently at +3.6 in terms of expected goal difference, while Rochdale are at a rather disappointing -3.1. What’s more, the last couple of games have seen the visitors come out with a combined xG difference of +0.8, while Rochdale came out of their last two a bit worse for wear with -2.7. Dale have tougher assignments, but their efforts were poor nonetheless.
In short, Bristol Rovers simply have a far more solid look about them at present, which means that it’s very easy to feel that they ought to be shorter in the betting ahead of Tuesday’s showdown at Spotland. Backing the visitors to become the third team in less than two weeks to topple Keith Hill’s men is hard to resist at the prices.
Head to Head
Bristol Rovers did win when the teams last met, but that was their first victory against Rochdale in six renewals of this fixture. Prior to that defeat in February, Rochdale had won three of their last five games against Bristol Rovers.
Rochdale Team News
Connor Randall is out for Rochdale, while Sam Hart is also expected to be sidelined. There are also serious doubts over the fitness of Harrison McGahey.
Bristol Rovers Team News
Tareiq Holmes-Dennis is expected to be out for the visitors, while Sam Mathews could also miss out. Aside from that, unless rotation is the order of the day, Rovers ought to be at full strength.
Next Fixtures To Kick Off
Rochdale vs Bristol Rovers Stats
- Bristol Rovers have a positive expected goal difference of +3.6, while Rochdale have a negative expected goal difference of -3.1.
- Rochdale rank inside the bottom six in terms of shots on target in League One this season.
- Bristol Rovers are conceding an average of 1.18 expected goals for this season, while Rochdale are conceding an average of 1.78.
Published: October 2, 2018
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