Rochdale vs Plymouth Argyle Predictions

Rochdale have been finding it tough to turn a corner of late; Keith Hill’s men have approached the corner and peered round on a couple of occasions, but that’s about as far as they’ve got. Every time they regain the winning thread, they’re unable to move forward and put together a pleasing run of form. Saturday’s hosts are now without a win in three league matches, though they may still fancy their chances when they welcome lowly Plymouth to Spotland on Saturday afternoon.

In all honesty, it’s not surprising that Rochdale are struggling to get their heads in front on regular basis. Dale continue to look weak at the back; they’ve eight goals in their last four matches, while they continue to give away plenty of chances.

Recent home form would suggest that Rochdale have improved at the back, as they’ve kept four clean sheets in their last five at Spotland. Such form does bode well, but if we dig a little deeper, it’s not hard to feel that good fortune has played a big part in recent defensive success. Keith Hill’s men may not have conceded many goals at home of late, but they have surrendered plenty of chances, so it probably won’t be long before Josh Lillis is once again picking the ball out of the net in front of a home crowd. In their last five at home, Rochdale have conceded a total of 8.44 expected goals, conceding a minimum of 1.17 during that time. Such numbers don’t exactly suggest that they’re keeping things tight.

At the other end, Keith Hill’s men have looked useful, as they’re averaging 1.74 expected goals for at home this season, while they’ve clocked 1.58+ in four of their last five on home soil. If you’re giving plenty away, then it’s important that you can create plenty at the other end. Fortunately, Rochdale can and indeed do.

Plymouth are suffering from a similar problem. On their day, Derek Adams’ men are more than capable of hurting teams, as many of their matches have shown, but they too are blighted by a lack of defensive quality, especially when playing away from home.

On their travels, Plymouth have kept just one clean sheet this season, while they’ve conceded 19 goals in total. Shipping 19 goals is bad enough, but if we consider that they’re averaging 2.7 expected goals against, then it’s easy to conclude that their defending has been even worse than their conceded total suggests.

Given Plymouth’s shocking defensive record on the road, this does look like an excellent opportunity for the hosts. That said, Rochdale have defended worse than recent home results have suggests, so it’s tough to make a case for them at such a short price. Instead, the bet that catches the eye is ‘Over 3.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’.

Defensive weakness is a feature for Rochdale and Plymouth, so both the teams are likely to be targeting this as a game to score goals. Neither side are strangers to high-scoring matches, while they both rank inside the bottom six both in terms of expected goals against and shots on target against. Quite simply, as two calamitous defences come together, it’s worth betting that the goals flow at Spotland on Saturday afternoon.