SC Freiburg vs Nurnberg Predictions

It’s been a difficult year for Freiburg. A record win over Augsburg – a 5-1 home thrashing at the end of February – has been contrasted with a few less inspiring performances, including that of last weekend’s 3-0 defeat at home to relegated Hannover. Coach Christian Streich still needs to work on the “lack of stability” he criticised his side on earlier this season – for example, by avoiding things like following up a 1-1 draw at home to Bayern with a 5-0 defeat away to Mainz – and a run of five defeats in six (D1 L5) looks to have put them back to square one in that regard.

Nurnberg won’t have enjoyed their last meeting with Freiburg, a 1-0 defeat on their own turf back in December. Der Club were in bad shape then and they’re in even worse shape now. Nurnberg have won just one of their last 27 matches (W1 D8 L18) and last weekend’s 4-0 results confirmed their relegation back to the Bundesliga 2. With only pride to play for, they’ll probably want to go down with their heads held high. However, with Nurnberg having only picked up three points on the road this season (D3 L13), even that’s a bit of an ask.

It’s no surprise, therefore, that Freiburg are favourites here, but we feel there’s some serious value to be had in the goals market – or rather, a lack of them – for this game. Nurnberg’s league matches so far in 2019 have seen a measly 36 goals – an average of 2.25 per game, the lowest number in the Bundesliga – and no team has scored fewer than them since the winter break either. Freiburg themselves haven’t been in the best form, scoring just three goals over their last six Bundesliga outings, which is another stat that bodes well for a bet on under 2.5 goals.

What’s more interesting is that the high-scoring games that Freiburg and Nurnberg have recently been involved in are largely down to their poor defensive records rather than their own offensive record. However, in this case, it’s hard to say whether either of them will be able to – or even have the motivation to in this “nothing” game – take advantage of each other’s poor defensive form. Only Nurnberg’s awful away record steers this away from looking like a “bore draw”, and for that reason, we’re backing the hosts to come out on top. Our prediction: 1-0 Freiburg.