Scunthorpe vs AFC Wimbledon Predictions

After their defeat at Spotland last Saturday, Scunthorpe find themselves right back in the thick of the battle for survival. The Iron are currently two points above the drop, though they are far from safe, which means that they cannot afford to lose against fellow strugglers AFC Wimbledon, who’re currently second from bottom.

Scunthorpe did lose against another of the relegation scrappers last weekend, though it’s tough to say that they deserved to come off second best. From a defensive point of view, there wasn’t much to like about the way Stuart McCall’s men conducted their business, though they certainly offered plenty of encouragement in the final third, so much so that they probably deserved a share of the spoils, or at least that’s what their expected goal difference of +0.26 suggests. If they can create 2.08 expected goals against Wimbledon on Saturday, then they’re unlikely to walk away empty handed.

When last at this venue, Scunny performed well, as they brushed aside another of the struggling teams in Southend, winning by four goals to one. On that occasion, they gave little away defensively, while they also offered plenty going forward, posting a very encouraging 2.5 expected goals for.

Creating chances and offering a general threat going forward hasn’t been too much of a problem for Saturday’s hosts, so they ought to get plenty of joy against a Dons side that has struggled for defensive security of late. However, McCall’s men have generally found it tough to keep teams out, even on their own patch, as they’ve conceded at least once in each of their last three home matches, as well as in eight of their last ten. An average of 1.84 expected-goals against doesn’t exactly point towards defensive solidity either.

Wimbledon had their defensive insecurities well and truly exposed last time out, as they shipped four goals against Gillingham, though their performance wasn’t without promise, as they created chances and scored twice.

If they defend as they did last time out, then Wimbledon will struggle to avoid conceding multiple goals on Saturday, though they should not be written off offensively. Several of the Dons’ recent efforts away from home have been encouraging from an attacking point of view. Wally Downes’ men have scored at least once in three of their last four on the road, while they’ve recently posted expected goals for figures of 1.6, 4.4 and 2.59, so they’ve certainly been carving out scoring opportunities.

When we consider the recent performances of both Scunthorpe and Wimbledon in conjunction with the fact that both teams have little choice but to throw everything that they’ve got at each of their remaining games, it’s easy to envisage goals being scored on Saturday afternoon. More importantly, its easy to feel that a bet on ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ represents value at the current prices. With both having shown plenty going forward but little defensive resistance over the last few weeks, backing the goals to flow at Glanford Park, where there’s been an average of 3.26 goals scored this season, is very much the way to go.