Scunthorpe vs Bradford Predictions

It’s too late for Bradford, but there’s still time for Scunthorpe to save their season. The Iron are currently in the bottom four, but if they can beat their already-relegated opposition on Saturday, then they’ll go into the final match-day with a very real chance of remaining in the division.

On paper, Scunthorpe were battered by Charlton last weekend, though the Iron put up more of a fight than a simple glance at the score-line suggests. They were perhaps a bit naïve to go and take on a side of Charlton’s nature, but they created more than a reasonable amount going forward as a result. Unfortunately, their end-product wasn’t on point, while they were simply caught out by a side not lacking in forward quality. In terms of overall quality, Scunthorpe deserved to come off second best, but they certainly performed better than the result would have us believe.

However, while they did do well in spells against Charlton last weekend, the fact remains that they scored no goals and conceded four. Defensively, when it comes to resisting against pressure, the Iron struggle massively, even on their own patch, where they’ve kept just one clean sheet in their last six and just four all season. Moreover, they’ve shipped an average of 1.78 expected goals and an average of 1.77 goals on home soil this season. Such numbers look particularly poor when Saturday’s hosts have posted considerably less going the other way, as they average 1.32 goals for and 1.31 expected goals for.

Bradford are down and out, so the hosts will almost certainly fancy themselves to get the desired result. However, while Bradford’s motivation may be less than Scunthorpe’s, their task is also arguably easier, as there is no pressure on them. They’re going down whatever, so the visitors ought to play with freedom, whereas there’s every chance of the pressure getting to Scunny.

Not only can the visitors play without fear on Saturday, but they go into this game off the back of a couple of decent attacking efforts in their last couple of away matches. They were beaten by Coventry on Good Friday, though they weren’t without scoring chances, as they posted a respectable 1.63 expected goal for. What’s more, they scored twice when losing somewhat unluckily away against Bristol Rovers prior to that. Their efforts on both of those occasions suggest that the Bantams can do well going forward against a Scunny side that has struggled to keep things tight at the back at home this season.

As they’re the side still fighting for survival and as they’re at home against an already-relegated team, Scunny are naturally favourites, though their early odds-on price-tag appears to be a slight overestimation. Let’s face it, Scunny are anything but a decent side; they’re without a win in seven and are close to being relegated themselves. Frankly, betting on the hosts to get the win that they need represents poor value.

One bet that does stand out as slightly overpriced is ‘Bradford to Score Over 1.5 Goals’. The visitors do have nothing to fight for, but they may just use that to their advantage against a side that is currently shouldering lots of pressure. Add in the fact that Scunthorpe have shipped an average of 1.78 expected goals and 1.77 goals at home, coupled with the fact that the visitors have looked reasonably useful going forward in their last couple of away matches, and it becomes easy to make a case for visiting goals at the current prices.