Scunthorpe vs Doncaster Rovers Predictions

It’s certainly not been a good season for Scunthorpe, who’re on course to fall miserably short of what they’ve achieved in each of the last two terms, though things have improved in recent times. Considering that they looked to be among the chief relegation candidates a few months ago, Stuart McCall’s men are currently sit in a reasonably healthy position. That said, they lost last time out and could do with regaining the winning thread to ensure that they do not slip back towards the drop-zone.

Scunthorpe did fail to pick up any points at Priestfield last weekend, though it must be said that they were unlucky. In a cagey game, a game where final-third quality was lacking, the Iron didn’t create much, so it wasn’t a surprise that they failed to find the net, though they gave even less away defensively, so the fact that they lost was harsh. The fact that Scunthorpe shipped just 0.21 expected goals tells us that they were certainly unlucky to see the ball hit the back of their own net.

Last weekend’s result shouldn’t deter Saturday’s hosts too much, as they’ve done well at Glanford Park of late. McCall’s men are unbeaten in four in front of a home crowd, three of which they’ve won. During that spell, they’ve outplayed promotion chasers Sunderland, while they’ve also beaten top-half teams such as Wycombe and Coventry.

From an attacking point of view, the Iron, despite not being amazingly creative,  have become far more clinical, which is positive. However, they still look vulnerable at the back, especially against good attacking sides, which doesn’t exactly bode well ahead of a game against one of the most menacing forward-lines in the division. Scunny boast a poor defensive record against the better sides, as they’ve shipped at least twice in four of their five home matches against sides currently residing in the top six.

As for Doncaster, well, it’s fair to say that things have been going well for Saturday’s visitors, who will arrive at Glanford Park off the back of two pleasing wins. Grant McCann’s men are now unbeaten in four League One matches, while they’ve only lost two of their last 15. Furthermore, they continue to offer a significant amount going forward and have now scored at least twice in four of their last five.

Donny haven’t been overly impressive from a defensive point of view this season, though that hasn’t hampered them, as they’re a side that is built very much on attacking principles. Even on their travels, McCann’s men have set about attacking teams and they’ve rarely failed to find the net, scoring in four of their last five travelling matches, three of which they’ve scored at least twice in.

In addition to scoring plenty of goals on the road this season, 26 to be exact, Doncaster have posted solid expected-goals for numbers. Their average of 1.53 expected goals for tells us that they’ve created plenty of opportunities, while recent away-day figures of 2.12 and 1.9 bode well ahead of a match against a Scunthorpe back-line that can certainly be got at. Unfortunately, the visitors have given plenty away. They’re conceding an average of 1.58 expected goals, while they’ve conceded an average of 1.53 goals on the road. Such numbers don’t exactly scream defensive solidity.

If we run the numbers; there’s been an average of 3.22 expected goals in Scunthorpe’s home games and an average of 3.11 in Doncaster’s away games this season, it’s easy to feel that there’s value to be had by backing ‘Over 2.5 Goals’. As they look to attack, Doncaster tend to be involved in open games on the road, which is why 60% of their travelling matches have seen at least three goals go in. Donny are also League One’s third most prolific side in terms of being involved in away games that feature four or more goals, as ‘Over 3.5 Goals’ has yielded a profit in 47% of their fixtures on the road. If we consider this in conjunction with the fact there’s rarely a shortage of chances (both for and against) in Doncaster’s away games, then a small punt on at least four goals being scored on Saturday is also merited at the prices.