Scunthorpe vs Southend Predictions

After losing to Oxford, Scunthorpe needed to get a result against Bristol Rovers last weekend, though they were unable to do so, as they lost by a goal to nil in front of a home crowd. Having taken just a single point from their last four matches, the Iron find themselves slipping back towards the area of the table that they worked so hard to move away from. Just two points separate Scunny and the drop-zone, so they really do need to regain the winning thread sooner rather than later

Scunthorpe are now much tougher to beat, there can be no denying that, though they’re not sturdy enough to continue offering such a little amount going forward. On Saturday, Scunny were unlucky not to get a point from their game against Bristol Rovers, as they created a similar amount to their opponents, though a lack of end-product once again blighted them. Scunthorpe have now failed to score in three of their last six, while they’ve posted discouraging expected-goals for numbers of 1.22, 0.89, 1.22, 0.47, 0.65 and 0.55 during that time.

Even on their own patch, the Iron are finding it tough to both create chances in general and create more than their opponents. Stuart McCall’s men have now been outperformed in terms of expected goals in each of their last three at Glanford Park, as well as in nine of their last ten in front of a home crowd. In their last two, they have clocked 1.22 expected goals for, but when they’re conceding an average of 1.85, such a figure pales into insignificance.

Southend aren’t the most menacing side, but they’ve generally offered a reasonable amount going forward on their travels of late. The Shrimpers have scored in four of their last five on the road, scoring a total of eight goals during that time. Moreover, they’ve lost just one of their last five on the road and have held decent sides such as Blackpool and Charlton to draws.

In truth, Southend have offered only fractionally more in the final third on the road of late than Scunthorpe have at home, but where they look much better is at the back. In terms of goals conceded, Scunthorpe have improved, but they’re still giving quite a bit away in terms of chances, whereas Southend have tended to give less away on the road. Southend are conceding an average of 1.3 expected goals on the road, while Scunthorpe have conceded an average of 1.9 at home.

As the league table suggests, there is anything but a chasm between this pair and thus this game could very easily go either way. However, at the prices, it could pay to side with the visitors. Based on the recent performances of both, it’s easy to feel that Southend are slightly overpriced and thus a small punt on them to heap further pressure on the Iron by coming out on top is worthwhile.