Southend vs Rochdale Predictions

They can be forgiven for losing in the League Cup, but what Kevin Bond’s Southend can’t be forgiven for is losing when leading 3-1 in League One. Despite holding a two-goal lead with 35 minutes to go last weekend, the Shrimpers somehow left Adams Park empty-handed. It’s still very early days, though things don’t look good for Southend, who’re yet to pick up a point.

Southend finally got off the mark in terms of away goals for last weekend, as they notched three times, which will have pleased manager Kevin Bond, though the ex-Spurs and QPR coach won’t be pleased after watching his side concede four.

Five games have yielded five losses, three goals scored, and 14 goals conceded. Not only have Southend struggled to get the ball in the net, but they’ve also struggled to create regular scoring opportunities, as an average of 0.73 expected goals for suggests. They’ve certainly not been unlucky in the final third. At the other end of proceedings, the Shrimpers have been a bit unfortunate, as an average of 1.62 expected goals against tells us that they don’t quite deserve an average of 2.8 goals against. However, from such figures we can see that Southend are giving up considerably more than they’re creating, so we can’t say that they’re unlucky to be where they are in the table, even if some of the goals that they’ve shipped have been unwarranted.

Unlike Southend, Rochdale have made a solid start to the campaign. Saturday’s visitors have lost just one of their five matches. They’ve only won one of the other four, which is perhaps a slight worry, but they’re unquestionably a stronger side than they were at this stage of the previous campaign.

Where Rochdale have been significantly better than Southend this term is at the back. Dale come into this fixture having kept two clean sheets, while they’ve conceded a modest total of five. An average of 1.04 expected goals against is not amazing, but it does suggest that teams are finding it reasonably tough to create lots of chances against Brian Barry-Murphy’s men, who’ve only conceded 1.00 or more expected goals twice this term, which is pleasing.

The betting ahead of this game suggests that both teams have a strong chance of netting on Saturday, though given the numbers produced by this pair, it’s easy to take the opposite view.

What with Southend struggling offensively, averaging only 0.8 goals for and 0.73 expected goals for, ‘Both Teams to Score- NO’ makes plenty of appeal. If we add in the fact that Rochdale are averaging just a goal for per game, as well as only 0.91 expected goals for, then it’s easy to conclude that the chances of at least one team faltering offensively on Saturday afternoon are greater than the current prices would have us believe.