Sportfreunde Lotte vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

Sportfreunde Lotte have been unbelievable since being promoted from the Regionalliga West (German 4th tier) last season. Lotte stand 3rd in the German 3rd tier (3. Liga) and are enjoying their best ever DFB Pokal run after their 2-0 win at home to 1860 Munich in the round of 16. Hosting Bundesliga giants Borussia Dortmund in the quarter finals was no doubt a dream draw, arguably representing the biggest fixture in the club’s history, but expectations to progress any further in the competition won’t be too high.

Borussia Dortmund are huge favourites at 1/8 with bet365 and we feel that “over 2.5 goals and both teams to score – no” at 6/4 is the best way to back the visitors for the following reasons: credit must be given to Sportfreunde Lotte for knocking out two Bundesliga sides at home (Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen) to get to this point in the competition. However, Borussia Dortmund present a much different challenge than those before them. Unlike Bremen and Leverkusen, who are both performing way below expectation in the Bundesliga, Dortmund have lost just two of their last 12 matches domestically (W6 D4 L2). Notably, Lotte’s home form has also slipped since the earlier rounds – Sportfreunde have lost three of their last five league matches at home (W2 L3).

Given the DFB Pokal also represents the BVB’s only realistic chance at silverware this season, Dortmund are almost certain to start a full strength team, something they’ve stuck to already in prior rounds. Dortmund are obviously the much better side on paper and the form of dynamic forward Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – the Bundesliga’s joint top scorer (22 goals in 22 appearances) – should prove particularly troublesome. Aubamayang has scored 8 goals in his last four competitive outings and all of his last five DFB Pokal goals have been scored in matches on the road, so expect him to play a vital role in upping the Dortmund goal tally this Tuesday.

Regarding a correct score bet, with Dortmund much improved defensively – three clean sheets from their last five matches across all competitions – it’s hard to see Sportfreunde Lotte getting a goal here. We expect Lotte to be happy enough to simply brush shoulders with some of the best players in Germany and, as such, we feel Dortmund have a perfect opportunity to run riot. Hence, we find a 5-0 Dortmund win at 11/1 to be worth the long shot.