Sporting Gijon vs Albacete Predictions

Unfortunately, Gijon’s recent run of form has put paid to their chances of making the play-offs, though Saturday’s visitors still have a very real chance of going up. They’re going to finish inside the top six whatever happens at El Molinón, but if they win, then finishing in 2^nd place will still be possible. If Granada get beat and Albacete emerge victorious, then the race for the final automatic spot will certainly be on.

Last time out, Gijon weren’t good enough, there’s no two ways about it. They failed to get going offensively, while they gave far too much away at the back. If they want to regain some dignity by winning on Saturday, then they’ll need to improve considerably at both ends of the pitch.

Fortunately for Saturday’s hosts, they’ve been better at home than they have on the road. Last time out at this venue, they performed respectably when drawing against Lugo, while they were much better than Elche prior to that. The fact that Gijon are without defeat in five at home, three of which they’ve won, is pleasing, as is the fact that they’ve shipped just two goals during that time.

Unlike Gijon, who have no chance of going up, Albacete are in an excellent position, a position that they’ve got themselves into thanks to performing well away from home. Only Granada have accumulated more travelling points than Saturday’s visitors, who’ve won nine, drawn four and lost six of their 19 away matches.

The table tells us that Albacete have been useful away from home, though if we scratch beneath the surface, we can see that they haven’t been that great, or at least they haven’t been since the turn of the year. Luis Miguel Ramis’ men have won three of their last four on the road, but as they’ve been easily bettered in terms of expected goals in each of those three, they’ve been somewhat fortunate. Expected goals for totals of 0.02, 0.36 and 0.28 simply aren’t good enough, nor are expected goals against total of 2.53, 1.87 and 1.88. Frankly, if such numbers aren’t improved, their pleasing away form will soon come to an end.

If we use the underlying numbers as a guide, then we can conclude that Gijon have been performing better at home than Albacete have on the road, by some margin. On this basis, a bet that favours the hosts makes plenty of appeal.

At the prices, ‘Gijon to Score Over 1.5 Goals’ stands out as a viable option. Gijon haven’t scored twice at home since late February, though they average a reasonable 1.4 expected goals for at home. Add in the fact that, Albacete have conceded at least twice in each of their last two on the road and the fact that they’ve been giving a lot away in term of chances, surrendering an average of 1.69 expected goals on their travels this season, and the hosts look a decent price to bag a couple on Saturday.