Swindon vs Port Vale Predictions

• Port Vale have won five of their last six League Two away games.
• Port Vale won 2-1 at the County Ground earlier this season.
• Swindon won less than half of their home league games in 2021-22 (Nine out of 23).

Clarke’s return crucial to Vale chances

The first leg of this League Two play-off semi-final will undoubtedly be a tense affair with Swindon boss Ben Garner warning his players to expect a “completely different type of football” when they take on Port Vale at the County Ground.

The fear of making a mistake can often make for low-scoring, jittery games and that should suit a Vale team that have not enjoyed a fluent end to the regular season. The Valiants lost three straight games from mid-April to lose touch with the automatic promotion chase and needed a last-day victory at title-contending Exeter just to ensure Sutton United missed out on the playoffs by a point.

One major mitigating factor during their rough run-in was the absence of manager Darrell Clarke, who had been granted extended compassionate leave because of a close family bereavement, but he was back at the helm for their 1-0 win at St James’ Park.

Vale’s calling card is the 1-0 away win

Victories by a single goal on the road have become something of a calling card for Clarke’s men of late and this game could go the same way, particularly if they are able to get their noses in front. No League Two team had more leads in games – 32 out of 46 – than Vale last season and they converted them into an impressive 22 wins.

Swindon, therefore, might need to be a bit more cautious than Garner, who has vowed to attack in both games, has stated they will be. The Robins are on a four-game winning streak that includes County Ground victories over high-flying Forest Green and struggling Barrow, but their overall home form has been a concern this season.

A mere nine wins from 23 games in front of their own supporters is another reason to lean towards Port Vale in the betting. That’s why our favoured play here is to back the visitors in the draw no bet market and take a smaller-stake shot at a 1-0 away win for Clarke’s side.