TSG Hoffenheim vs Nurnberg Predictions

After drawing against Leipzig, Hoffenheim would’ve been hoping to go away to Frankfurt, who’re preoccupied with the Europa League at present, and win last weekend, though Julian Nagelsmann’s men were sent packing, as they lost by three goals to two at Commerzbank Stadium. Having failed to win any of their last two matches, Sunday’s hosts will be looking to bounce back.

Hoffenheim could have few complaints about losing against Frankfurt last time out; they offered a reasonable amount going forward, while they showed their usual end-product in the final third, though they were far too open at the back. If you’re shipping 2.2 expected goals, then there can be no complaints when you find yourself coming off second best.

Fortunately, the defensive efforts of Julian Nagelsmann’s men have been decent at home of late. Last time out at this venue, Hoffenheim shut out Hannover, who like Nurnberg are struggling down the bottom of the table. On that occasion, they gave away just 0.35 expected goals. Prior to that effort, they restricted Dusseldorf to few opportunities conceding just 0.6 expected goals. In fact, the only team to go to Rhein-Neckar-Arena in recent times and do real damage is Bayern. If we exclude their game against the Bavarian side, then Hoffenheim’s recent expected-goals against numbers at home read: 0.35, 0.6, 0.99 and 0.29. Such numbers suggest that Hoffenheim are tough to get.

With Hoffenheim generally looking decent defensively at home of late, it’s easy to see Nurnberg, who’ve struggled massively on their travels this season, faltering on Sunday afternoon. Sunday’s hosts have scored an average of just 0.64 goals on the road during since moving up to the top flight. Their average of 0.91 expected goals for suggests that they probably should’ve scored a few more goals than they have, though such a number also shows that Nurnberg are very weak offensively. It’s no surprise that they’ve failed to score in three of their last five on the road. It’s also unsurprising that Nurnberg have scored more than once in just 18% of their travelling matches.

Not only have Nurnberg struggled to get going in the final third, but they’ve found it very, very difficult to keep teams at bay. Der Club have shipped an average of three goals on their travels, while they’ve also conceded a whopping average of 2.03 expected goals, which does not bode well when their hosts have averaged a sizeable 2.4 expected goals for at home.

Hoffenheim may be without a win in two, but they could hardly have asked for a better opportunity to bounce back in style. Against inferior opposition, who’ve been beaten by at least two goals in 55% of their travelling matches this season, the hosts can fil their boots and punters can profit by backing ‘Hoffenheim -2 Asian Handicap’, which given the numbers above, looks a decent bet. As we saw last time out at this venue, when they scored three goals and clocked 2.99 expected goals for against Hannover, Hoffenheim can make light work of battering the poor teams, so they’re fancied to defeat their opponents in emphatic style, much as several of the other top-half teams have done this season.