Walsall vs Bristol Rovers Predictions

Having been thrashed by Bradford the week before, it was important that the Saddlers avoided being on the end of another thrashing prior to the busy Christmas period. Fortunately, Dean Keates’ men weren’t embarrassed last time out, as they drew 1-1 away with Peterborough. Not only did they avoid defeat on that occasion, but they played well, especially in the final third, so they should come into this fixture with renewed confidence.

It must be said that Walsall did deliver a decent performance against a rather open Peterborough side, though that match only served to highlight the fact that they’re lacking in term of end-product. The Saddlers have now failed to score in three of their last six in League One, while barring a few decent efforts, they’ve struggled to be overly creative. They’re averaging just 1.23 expected goals for this season, which tells us that they’re not the most menacing side when it comes to carving out scoring opportunities. Their average of just a single goal scored also shows that they’re not exactly the best at getting the bet in the net either.

Not only do Walsall’s offensive numbers look slightly alarming, but they also have both a negative goal difference and a negative expected goal difference. Interestingly, Keates’s men have conceded more expected goals than all but three teams in League One this season, which doesn’t exactly bode well. Even at home, in terms of chances, Walsall have struggled to negate what they’ve given away at the back, as they currently boast an expected goal difference of -0.51.

Bristol Rovers are another side that has found it very tough to impose themselves offensively, even more so than Walsall, though there’s reason to believe that they can do well in this match, or at least it easy to feel that they’ve been slightly overlooked in the early betting.

The visitors had been struggling for some time, but they finally regained the winning thread last time out and deservedly so. They created chances and finally found the net more than once for the first time since early November. Also, their effort when losing by two goals to one against Sunderland prior to that suggests that they can compete against Walsall.

What’s more, if we look at Bristol Rovers’ underlying numbers on the road, they come out favourably compared to Walsall at home. For all they’ve won just twice away from home this season and have lost six out of 11, they’ve rarely been battered. Wednesday’s visitors have lost by more than a single goal just once on their travels, while their average expected goal difference of -0.30 is better than Walsall’s at home.

At the end of the day, neither Walsall nor Bristol Rovers come out that favourably in many areas, while both have certainly had problems in terms of both creativity and scoring goals. However, there’s slightly less of a disparity than current prices suggest, so backing the visitors, who will surely be buoyed by their win at the weekend, to get a positive result makes sense.