Walsall vs Burton Albion Predictions

After a couple of poor results, Walsall looked as though they may be on the decline, but the Saddlers bounced back last weekend, beating Wycombe by three goals to two in front of a home crowd. With that confidence-boosting victory behind them, Dean Keates’ men will be hoping to secure another three points when they welcome Burton to Bescot Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

It had looked like Walsall were about to return to a poor modest league position after their defeats against Southend and Luton, though their 3-2 win against Wycombe last weekend has kept them in a lofty 9^th position, while they’re just three points off the top six. On the face of it, Walsall are a very decent side, though if we dig a little deeper, we can see that they’ve probably not been as good as some of their results suggest.

Take their 3-2 win over Wycombe for example; offensively, the Saddlers performed well, though they hardly did enough to warrant coming out on top, while their defending was poor. In fact, defending poorly at home has been something of a theme for Walsall this season. Keates’ men have conceded nine goals in seven games at Bescot Stadium, which isn’t glaringly terrible, though even with a respectable average of 1.61 expected goals for, they have an average expected goals difference of -0.18, such has been the level of their defending. By conceding an average of 1.79 expected goals at home, Walsall really ought to have conceded more goals.

Keeping things tight has also been a problem for Burton on their travels, who’ve shipped a worrying total of 12 goals in seven away games this season, while it’s not as if they’ve been hard done by, as their average of 2.08 expected goals against tells us.

However, for all they’ve found it tough to keep teams out, conceding in each of their seven travelling matches, Burton have got competitive in the final third. Nigel Clough’s men have scored in all but one of their away games, while they’ve scored five in their last two on the road. Such form suggests that they’ll be capable of hurting Walsall’s dodgy back-line.

Considering that creating chances hasn’t been a problem for Walsall at home, nor has it been an issue for Burton on the road, a case can be made for ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’ at the prices. Burton have given up an average of 2.08 expected goals on their travels, while Walsall have surrendered an average of 1.79 at home. What’s more, only two of Burton’s away games have ended with a total of less than 3.0 expected goals.