Werder Bremen vs Nurnberg Predictions

Werder Bremen stand on four points after two matches of the 2018/19 campaign – not too bad you might think to yourself. However, an uninspiring display at home to Hannover 96 followed by a narrow win over 10 man Eintracht Frankfurt just before the international break makes things seem better than they are. New signings Yuya Osako and former-Everton man Davy Klaasen have settled in well enough at their new club, but Werder are still lacking true attacking threat with last season’s top scorer Max Kruse (6 goals) not yet back at his full potential (he scored 15 goals in the 16/17 season). Head coach Florian Kohfeldt could therefore hand a start to forward Milot Rashica, who scored Werder’s 90th minute winner against Frankfurt last time out.

Nurnberg got their first points on the board after holding Mainz to a 1-1 draw at home before the international break. Last season’s second top scorer Mikael Ishak (12 goals), who finished the 17/18 campaign just behind captain Hanno Behrens (14), scored the Bavarians’ first goal since earning promotion back to the German top flight, in part making up for his missed penalty in their opening 1-0 defeat to Hertha Berlin. Coach Michael Koellner is unlikely to make many changes on Sunday, but Nurnberg-born Bayern Munich loanee Timothy Tillman, who was an unused substitute for a second consecutive match last time out, could make an appearance against Werder Bremen.

So how does this one look in terms of betting? Well, Nurnberg look settled enough for a recently promoted side that has lacked any significant investment over the summer, and there’s really not much to differentiate between them and a team like Bremen. At present, both sides lack the attacking spark to propel them forward, and if their respective season openers are anything to go off, we could be in for a dreary affair. Interestingly, even against weaker opposition, both Werder Bremen’s and Nurnberg’s defenses have focused on limiting chances to their opponents. Bremen have faced just five shots on target over two fixtures against Hannover 96 and a ten-man Eintracht Frankfurt, while Nurnberg have faced just four shots on target against Hertha Berlin and Mainz – no team has faced fewer. With that in mind, there looks some value to be had in backing under 2.5 goals for this one on Sunday.

What sets these two sides apart then? Well, Werder are performing better at home and Nurnberg have a lot of work to do on their away form. Bremen have conceded just three goals over their last four home matches, which includes games against attacking giants Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig, and Bayer Leverkusen. Not to mention their 35% clean sheet ratio last season. Nurnberg, meanwhile, have kept a clean sheet in just one of their last seven matches on the road (one Bundesliga, one DFB Pokal, and five Bundesliga 2 matches) and have also lost all of their last seven top flight away matches (one in the 18/19 season and six in the 13/14 season). With Werder out to make it 14 consecutive home matches unbeaten (W6 D7 before this match), you have to fancy them for the result out of the two. Our prediction: 1-0 Werder Bremen.