Wigan vs Brentford Predictions

Wigan Athletic have had a disappointing season on the whole but I’m sure if you offered their fans 21st place at the start of the season they would have snapped your hands off. Currently they sit in 19th place and 3 points above the relegation zone. They head into this game on the back of a confidence boosting 5-2 win against an all but doomed Bolton Wanderers. Their defence will concern them somewhat as they can’t afford to concede 2 goals to Bolton and 3 at Reading and expect to pull off results against the better sides in the division.

Brentford have had an up and down season, they had a terrible start and were looking in real danger of relegation right up to Christmas before they turned it around losing just one in their next 10 and giving themselves an outside shot at the playoffs. That hope has since faded, as 3 losses in their last 5 has put them 8 points adrift of the top 6 with just 9 games to go. They head into this game on the back of consecutive losses away at Sheffield United and home to West Bromwich Albion. That loss to West Brom ended a run of 5 straight wins at home for the Bees.

Wigan have been good at home despite their league position, they have won 9, drawn 6 and lost just 4 of their home games this season, ranking them as the 7th best team in the league on their home soil. They score 1.32 goals per game and concede just 1.00 per game at the DW and will be relying on their home form to ensure survival for another season.

Brentford have been awful away from home this season, winning 2, drawing 7 and losing 9. The disparity between home and away for Brentford is huge, at home they rank as the 4th best home side in the division yet away from home they rank as low as 19th. They score 1.11 per game away from home, however concede 1.67 per game, which isn’t sustainable if you want to have a good record on the road.

For how bad Wigan have been overall, they are unbeaten in 6 home games and have won 3 of those. They have beat Aston Villa, QPR and Bolton whilst picking up draws against Stoke, Ipswich and Boro. If this was 7th at home to 19th you wouldn’t be getting a price as big as 9/4 but that’s exactly what we are being offered here. We think that’s far too big but the main value is with backing the home side on the double chance market. On the correct score front we don’t think Wigan will quite have enough to win and for that reason we’re backing the 1-1 draw.