AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth Argyle Predictions

They were disappointingly beaten at The Valley in their penultimate match, but Wally Downes’ men bounced back nicely on their travels at the weekend. Adams Park has proven to be tough venue to visit this season, so the Dons will have taken plenty of confidence from Saturday’s victory, confidence that should see them do well against a struggling Plymouth side on Boxing Day.

Wally Downes has now taken charge of three games at Wimbledon, and while they’ve certainly not turned many heads during that time, they’ve been steady. They dug in and were hard to beat against Rochdale, while their performance at the weekend was largely built on resilience too.

The Dons are yet to really hit their stride going forward since the arrival of Downes, nor did they do so under the previous regime, but this match against a defensively inept Plymouth side provides them with the perfect opportunity to get going offensively.

They haven’t found it easy to score goals, but Wimbledon have scored at least once in each of their last three at home, while they’ve also produced expected goals for figures of 1.64 and 1.58 during that time. Such efforts suggest that they can certainly get at a weak Plymouth rear-guard.

To say that Plymouth have struggled defensively is probably an understatement. The Pilgrims can often get competitive in the final third, but they’ve simply not been at the races at the back, especially on their travels, where they’ve kept just one clean sheet this season.

Derek Adams’ men have conceded a whopping 20 goals in 11 away matches during the current campaign, while they’re giving up an abysmal average of 2.55 expected goals. This shows that not only have they been leaking lots of goals but that they’re giving away an abundance of chances. Wimbledon are far from being one of League One’s most powerful attacking sides, but if the Pilgrims are up to their usual tricks at the back, then it won’t take much for the hosts to find the net.

If we look at the fact that Plymouth have conceded at least twice in three of their last five on the road, coupled with the fact that that they’ve surrendered considerably more than 2.0 expected goals in four of those five, then it’s easy to feel that ‘Wimbledon to Score Over 1.5 Goals’ is worth a go at the prices. The Dons will be buoyed after scoring twice and winning at the weekend, while they won’t get many better opportunities to treat the Kingsmeadow crowd to multiple goals.