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Arsenal vs FC Porto Predictions

Published on 8:00pm GMT 12 March 2024

  • 20:00
  • Expired
  • Emirates Stadium
Arsenal
FC Porto
  • TNT Sports 1

Arsenal to Win and Under 3.5 Match Goals

Reason for tip

Arsenal have won their last four home games by an aggregate score of 14-3 – beating Liverpool and Newcastle convincingly in that run – suggesting they should have enough to reverse the 1-0 deficit with Porto and progress to the quarter-finals for the first time since 2010. However, it should not be forgotten that the Dragons prevented the Gunners from even managing a shot on target in the first-leg and they could prevent their hosts from running away with things in north London.

10/11odds when tipped
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Arsenal 3-0

Reason for tip

Porto put on a clinic in defending in the first leg, limiting the free-scoring Gunners to just seven shots and none on target. While they may eventually falter in north London, they could remain competitive and are unlikely to be embarrassed, with the extra day’s rest they hold over Arsenal – who were made to work hard by Brentford on Saturday – likely to give them an added boost too.

13/2odds when tipped
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Jesus Gabriel To Score Anytime

Reason for tip

Gabriel Jesus has been usurped by Kai Havertz as the Gunners’ starting striker in the Premier League, but he could make the most of a rare opportunity to start on Tuesday. The Brazilian has scored in all four of his Champions League starts for Arsenal this season and should get plenty of chances against Porto’s low block.

13/10odds when tipped
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Arsenal vs FC Porto Predictions

  • Arsenal have won their last four home matches by an aggregate score of 14-3
  • Porto have won just one of their 23 away games against English sides in European competition, losing 19 in that run
  • The Gunners have won all three previous home meetings with the Dragons, keeping a clean sheet in each of those victories

Gunners going great guns

Arsenal may have suffered a shock loss in their first-leg tie with Porto, but they have been flying aside from that surprise defeat. They extended their winning streak in the Premier League to eight games with a 2-1 win over London rivals Brentford on Saturday evening and the Gunners have managed to net a sensational 33 goals in that run.

With that much momentum behind them, it is difficult to see a scenario in which Mikel Arteta’s side fail to beat Porto for a second time when they clash in north London on Tuesday night.

Arsenal have won their last four home matches by an aggregate score of 14-3 – beating title rivals Liverpool 3-1 and European hopefuls Newcastle 4-1 in that sequence – suggesting they should be far too strong for the Dragons at the Emirates Stadium.

Poor travellers Porto set for more away woes

Porto performed valiantly in their first-leg tie with the Gunners, digging deep to earn a 1-0 advantage ahead of the away fixture, but history suggests that will still not be enough to see Sergio Conceicao’s side progress to the quarter-finals.

The Dragons have won only one of their 23 away clashes with English sides in European competitions, losing 19 in that run. Even more worrying is the fact that sole victory came in Seville, as they were unable to fly to London to face Chelsea due to COVID-19 travel restrictions, meaning they have never won on British soil.

Porto faced Arsenal three times in that 22-match winless run in Britain, losing on each occasion and failing to find the net every time – with the latest meeting in London seeing the Gunners run out 5-0 victors.

The Dragons have lost four of their last eight Champions League away games and could be in for more travel sickness on Tuesday.

Goals unlikely to flow as frequently for fatigued hosts

While it looks a near-certainty that Arsenal will prevail in this tie and reach the Champions League quarter-finals for the first time since 2010, they may not run away with things when doing so.

Porto prevented the Gunners from even registering a shot on target in the first-leg and Arteta’s men were made to work hard by Brentford in their win on Saturday, with signs of fatigue likely to show following that gruelling London derby.

The Dragons have had an extra day rest ahead of this tie having beaten Portimonense 3-0 on Friday and the added recovery period could allow them to frustrate their hosts and limit their attack again.

Arsenal should eventually breach their visitors, but it is unlikely to happen too often and a home win with less than four goals in the match looks a solid bet.

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