Football Outright Tips

Mansfield finished seventh in the standings last season but they were still only eight points behind champions Forest Green. The Stags have largely managed to keep their squad intact and the captures of midfielder Hiram Boateng and veteran keeper Scott Flinders from MK Dons and Cheltenham respectively look shrewd additions.

Only two sides picked up more points than Bolton in the final 20 rounds (W12, D5, L3) of last season, a run which saw the Wanderers rise from the lowly depths of 18th to an eventual ninth placed finish. Manager Ian Evatt has done a good job of keeping his squad together over the summer and they should be able to mount a title bid.

Norwich may not quite cut it at the highest level, but they proved in 20/21 that they’re too strong for the Championship. Most of that squad remains and they have last season’s TV riches and their parachute payment to fund extra signings ahead of the new season too.

Mohamed Salah has been an absolute revelation for Liverpool since joining in 2017/18, scoring 118 Premier League goals in just 180 appearances. He is showing no signs of slowing down, either, notching 23 times last season for his second-best goalscoring season in the top flight. That was his third Golden Boot award in five seasons, with only Thierry Henry winning the award more times than him.

Teemu Pukki won the golden boot in the Championship in 2018/19 and he racked up another 26 goals the last time Norwich were at this level in 20/21, leading them to the title once again. Pukki was squeezed out in a competitive field that year, with the top four scorers from that season all plying their trade in the top flight this season bar Pukki. The Finn has been an incredible consistent scorer over the years for Norwich. He’s hit 29 and 26 in two Championship campaigns and 11 in both Premier League seasons.

Oxford’s goal poaching frontman Matt Taylor hit 20 of their 82 league goals last term, propelling his side to the brink of glory. Only six League One players contributed a higher portion of their 2021/22 team goals than Taylor’s 24% and a similar reliance on his efforts in another promotion push could see him at the top end of the scoring charts yet again.

The last time Omar Bogle was at this level for a full season he hit 19 goals in 27 games for Grimsby in 2016/17. Newport create plenty of chances and Dom Telford, now with Crawley, topped the scoring charts last season. County’s new boy Bogle will be the focal point in their attack next term and he looks a huge price to finish as League Two’s leading marksman.

The last four seasons have seen Manchester City and Liverpool relentlessly pursue perfection and just one point separates the two clubs over this 152-match period.

With this in mind, it is hard to get behind Manchester City at odds-on, especially when they will need to make some drastic changes to their playing style to accommodate Erling Haaland. The Norwegian’s arrival will undoubtedly prove fruitful in the long term, but there is every chance of a slow start and that could be fatal when every point counts.

Liverpool lost the title by just one point last term despite losing Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane for a month to their national sides. This season, Salah and Luis Diaz will enjoy a month of rest during the World Cup and that could make all the difference.

As always, Bayern Munich are overwhelming favourites and worth swerving in the outright market, but Borussia Dortmund should make another claim to the best of the rest crown.

They have won this market in three of the last four seasons and, while they have lost Erling Haaland, they have brought in some key players with Sebastian Haller, Niklas Sule and the highly-rated Karim Adeyemi all joining the cause.

Edin Terzig knows the club well after 12 years in various roles around Borussia Dortmund and main challengers RB Leipzig have lost a host of talent this summer.

PSG may be huge favourites in Ligue 1 but when you take the big-spending champions out of the equation things are a lot more competitive.

Marseille were best of the rest last season but will have a Champions League campaign to focus on, while Monaco will also be distracted by European commitments.

Lyon may have finished a disappointing eighth last term but they were only ten points off Marseille and can focus fully on the league. They have kept the bulk of their squad in tact while adding Alexandre Lacazette and Corentin Tolisso to their ranks, while Nicolas Tagliafico and Johann Lepenant are other eye-catching acquisitions.

Defending champions Ajax have lost a host of important personnel, with manager Erik ten Hag departing and the likes of Lisandro Martinez, Nicolas Tagliafico, Sebastian Haller and Ryan Gravenberch all heading for the exit door, too.

It will be a season of transition for the Amsterdam club and PSV can take advantage of their largely settled squad. They have lost a few players but Luuk de Jong’s arrival and Ajax’s transition can held them bridge the two-point gap from last season.

Porto beat Sporting Lisbon to the title by six points last season but have seen their squad decimated in the last six months. They lost Luis Diaz in January and have seen Vitinha and Fabio Vieira, who contributed eight goals and 17 assists between them, depart this summer.

Sporting’s only major loss from last season’s squad is the departure of Pablo Sarabia, but they have brought in plenty of defensive reinforcements and added Barcelona winger Francisco Trincao on loan. Overall, they look to have retained more of their most influential players than Porto so could pip their rivals to the post this season.

Both teams dropped just seven points since January last term so I’m siding with the higher price of Sporting, while Benfica could be a long way back after losing Darwin Nunez.

It is hard to look beyond Los Blancos after their claimed their 35th La Liga title last season, beating arch-rivals Barcelona by 13 points.

Xavi’s arrival in November sparked a resurgence for Barcelona but they still picked up five fewer points than Real Madrid since he took the reins and that was while Real Madrid maintained their successful Champions League campaign.

The Catalan club have strengthened their squad with the likes of Raphinha and Robert Lewandowski but internal politics and cashflow issues make them hard to back, while Real Madrid haven’t sat on their laurels, either, with the arrival of Aurelien Tchouameni and Antonio Rudiger.

Inter Milan finished just two points off top spot last season, despite losing Romelu Lukaku, Achraf Hakimi and Antonio Conte the summer before.

Simone Inzaghi proved he was ready for the step up in his first year in charge, winning the Italian Cup alongside their strong title defence. Now Lukaku is back, plus they’ve added Andre Onana from Ajax, which should take the Nerazzurri beyond AC Milan and keep them clear of Juventus.

Manchester City and Liverpool have been almost inseparable over the last four seasons, with just one point between them across the last 152 Premier League games.

The reigning champions will have to alter their style of play to accommodate Erling Haaland and Liverpool have the added bonus of giving Mohamed Salah and Luis Diaz a mid-season rest thanks to their respective national teams failing to qualify for the World Cup.

Another incredibly close battle for the title is expected but I fancy Liverpool to pip their new-age rivals.

Tottenham could be some way off in third but I give them the advantage over Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United.

Spurs earned 56 points in Antonio Conte’s 28 games in charge last season, with only Man City and Liverpool collecting more. They have strengthened in Richarlison and Yves Bissouma and Conte has averaged 2.2 points-per-game across almost 300 Premier League and Serie A games.

Bournemouth dropped off in the second half of last season and had just the sixth-best record in the Championship in 2022. They haven’t made any significant moves in the transfer market and are heavily reliant on Dominic Solanke, who either scored or assisted 48% of their goals last season.

Fulham are similarly reliant on Aleksandar Mitrovic after his record-breaking season but the Serbian has never managed to hit those heights in the top flight. They have also lost Fabio Carvalho, who scored ten and assisted eight, and each of their last two Premier League stints have lasted just a single season.

Everton had the joint-third worst record in the Premier League since Frank Lampard took over and they have lost star-player Richarlison this summer. They don’t look interested in reinvesting that money after recent years of frivolous spending and they took just five points from the ten games in which Richarlison didn’t start last season.